Probability and certainty in the performance of evolutionary and swarm optimization algorithmsIvković, Nikola (Avtor) Kudelić, Robert (Avtor) Črepinšek, Matej (Avtor) algorithmic performanceexperimental evaluationmetaheuristicsquantileconfidence intervalstochastic algorithmsevolutionary computationswarm intelligenceexperimental methodologyReporting the empirical results of swarm and evolutionary computation algorithms is a challenging task with many possible difficulties. These difficulties stem from the stochastic nature of such algorithms, as well as their inability to guarantee an optimal solution in polynomial time. This research deals with measuring the performance of stochastic optimization algorithms, as well as the confidence intervals of the empirically obtained statistics. Traditionally, the arithmetic mean is used for measuring average performance, but we propose quantiles for measuring average, peak and bad-case performance, and give their interpretations in a relevant context for measuring the performance of the metaheuristics. In order to investigate the differences between arithmetic mean and quantiles, and to confirm possible benefits, we conducted experiments with 7 stochastic algorithms and 20 unconstrained continuous variable optimization problems. The experiments showed that median was a better measure of average performance than arithmetic mean, based on the observed solution quality. Out of 20 problem instances, a discrepancy between the arithmetic mean and median happened in 6 instances, out of which 5 were resolved in favor of median and 1 instance remained unresolved as a near tie. The arithmetic mean was completely inadequate for measuring average performance based on the observed number of function evaluations, while the 0.5 quantile (median) was suitable for that task. The quantiles also showed to be adequate for assessing peak performance and bad-case performance. In this paper, we also proposed a bootstrap method to calculate the confidence intervals of the probability of the empirically obtained quantiles. Considering the many advantages of using quantiles, including the ability to calculate probabilities of success in the case of multiple executions of the algorithm and the practically useful method of calculating confidence intervals, we recommend quantiles as the standard measure of peak, average and bad-case performance of stochastic optimization algorithms.MDPI AG20222025-03-28 12:43:15Članek v reviji92315UDK: 004.8COBISS_ID: 130112003DOI: 10.3390/math10224364ISSN pri članku: 2227-7390sl© 2022 by the authors