Housing affordability as risk allocationCajnko, Petra (Avtor) Mencinger, Anja (Avtor) Klemenčič, Eva (Avtor) housing affordabilityfinancial riskhousing marketshousehold vulnerabilityhousing expectationshomeownershiprental marketsThis paper reframes housing affordability as part of a broader system of risk allocation within contemporary housing markets. While existing literature has mainly focused on price-to-income ratios and cost-burden indicators, less attention has been given to how housing systems distribute financial and stability risks across households through tenure structures and market conditions. Using survey evidence from Slovenia, a high-homeownership country shaped by post-socialist privatization and limited rental provision, the study examines how housing-related risks and expectations emerge at the household level. The empirical analysis combines correlation analysis with multivariate linear regression models incorporating key sociodemographic controls. The results show that perceived housing affordability is negatively associated with expectations of future housing price growth. In addition, expectations of rent increases emerge as a strong predictor of housing price expectations, highlighting a close relationship between rental and ownership market's perceptions. The findings support the argument that housing systems operate as perception-driven risk regimes in which expectations and perceived market pressure shape household vulnerability. The study suggests that housing-related risk is influenced not only by objective financial conditions but also by mechanisms of expectation formation linked to affordability perceptions. The paper contributes to the literature by integrating affordability, expectations, and risk allocation into a unified analytical framework for understanding housing market dynamics and household exposure to financial and residential vulnerability.Universidad de Cienfuegos20262026-06-16 14:39:47Znanstveno delo98488UDK: 332.8:330.131.7(497.4)COBISS_ID: 281833731ISSN pri članku: 2218-3620slSlovenija;