20.500.12556/DKUM-48376 PRIMERJALNA ANALIZA STROŠKOV IN KORISTI INVESTICIJE V INTEGRIRANO UPLINJANJE LESNE BIOMASE V LEBDEČEM SLOJU COMPARATIVE COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT IN INTEGRATED GASIFICATION OF BIOMASS IN FLUIDIZED BED Namen magistrskega dela je ugotoviti, ali je investicija integriranega uplinjanja lesne biomase v lebdečem sloju finančno upravičena. Osrednja metoda za oceno je analiza stroškov in koristi oziroma CBA analiza. V magistrskem delu je predstavljena inovativna tehnologija obnovljive energije uplinjanja biomase za proizvodnjo toplotne in električne energije. Ocenjevali smo: (NSV) neto sedanjo vrednost, (ISD) interno stopnjo donosnosti, (RNSV) relativno neto sedanjo vrednost, (P) obdobje povračila investicije, (DP) diskontirano dobo povračila investicije in (SD) donosnost investicije. Modelna ocena parametrov finančne smotrnosti investicije, ob predpostavki investicijskega cikla 15-ih let in 7 % ter 5,5 % diskontni stopnji kaže, da je investicija finančno upravičena. Znesek NSV je v obeh primerih pozitiven, to pomeni, da je investicija v integrirano uplinjanje lesne biomase v lebdečem sloju finančno upravičena. NSV pri 5,5 % diskontni stopnji je za 1.929.968 € višja kot pri investiciji s 7 % diskontno stopnjo. ISD v obeh primerih presega diskontno stopnjo. ISD pri 5,5 % diskontni stopnji je za 0,96 % višja kot pri investiciji s 7 % diskontno stopnjo. Kazalnik RNSV pri 5,5 % diskontni stopnji je za 0,20 višji kot pri investiciji s 7 % diskontno stopnjo. Doba povračila investicije (P) je 6,09 let pri investiciji s 5,5 % diskontno stopnjo in 6,36 let pri investiciji s 7 % diskontno stopnjo. Diskontirana doba povračila investicije (DP) je 7,08 let pri investiciji s 5,5 % diskontno stopnjo in 7,83 let pri investiciji s 7 % diskontno stopnjo. SD pri investiciji s 5,5 % diskontno stopnjo znaša 11,40 % in 11,02 % pri investiciji s 7 % diskontno stopnjo. Analiza občutljivosti je pokazala, da je projekt zelo občutljiv na višino diskontne stopnje in spremembo oziroma povišanje stroškov poslovanja ob hkratnem zmanjšanju prihodkov od prodaje (scenarij 5). Enako velja za scenarij 6, ki pri 5,5 odstotni diskontni stopnji še prenese povečanje investicijskih stroškov za 5 %, podražitev stroškov poslovanja za 5 % in hkratno zmanjšanje prihodkov od prodaje za 5 %, pri 7 % diskontni stopnji pa investicija ni več finančno upravičena. Projekt je neupravičen tudi v primeru, da se za 20 % zmanjšajo prihodki od prodaje (scenarij 1) ali da se za več kot 25 % podražijo stroški poslovanja (scenarij 2). The purpose of this master's thesis is to determine whether an investment in integrated biomass gasification in fluidized bed is financially justified. The main method used in the study is a cost-benefit analysis (CBA). In this master's thesis, the innovative renewable energy technology of biomass gasification for the production of thermal and electrical energy is presented. The following parameters were evaluated: net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), relative net present value (RNPV), payback period (PP), discounted payback period (DPP) and rate of return (RR). Assuming an investment cycle of 15 years and a 7 % and 5.5 % discount rate respectively, a model assessment of financial performance parameters shows that the investment is financially justified. The NSV in both cases is positive, which means that the investment in integrated gasification of biomass in fluidized bed is financially justified. Based on a discount rate of 5.5 %, the NPV is higher by €1,929,968 compared to an investment with a 7 % discount rate. The IRR in both cases exceeds the discount rate. Based on a discount rate of 5.5 %, the IRR is 0.96 % higher than in case of an investment with a 7 % discount rate. The RNPV parameter based on a 5.5 % discount rate is 0.20 higher than in case of an investment with a 7 % discount rate. The payback period (PP) is 6.09 years in case of an investment with a 5.5 % discount rate and 6.36 years in case of an investment with a 7 % discount rate. The discounted payback period (DPP) is 7.08 years in case of an investment with a 5.5 % discount rate and 7.83 years in case of an investment with a 7 % discount rate. The RR on an investment with a 5.5 % discount rate amounts to 11.40 % and 11.02 % on an investment with a 7 % discount rate. The sensitivity analysis showed that the project is very sensitive to the level of discount rate and to the change or increase of operating costs while reducing sales revenues (Scenario 5). The same applies to scenario 6, which with a 5.5 % discount rate can sustain a 5 % rise in investment costs, 5 % rise in operating costs and 5 % decrease in sales revenues, while with a 7 % discount rate the investment is no longer financially justified. The project is also not justified if sales revenues decrease by 20 % (Scenario 1) or if operating costs go up by more than 25 % (Scenario 2). CBA NSV ISD integrirano uplinjanje analiza občutljivosti CBA NPV IRR integrated gasification sensitivity analysis true true false Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Magistrsko delo/naloga 2015-06-15 11:38:54 2015-06-29 10:03:48 2022-05-25 03:06:55 2021-05-06 03:31:08 2015 0 Maribor 0 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 URN:SI:UM:DK:MSKRB0PH MAG_Zmak_Gregor_2015.pdf MAG_Zmak_Gregor_2015.pdf 1 2EA9A38DAEC4AA10251BCE6C20ADF7CC 2e3e9ad3b300af5ddd06c829b35aceb30fe5fabc6de9ec47b642f6c659a2e7fa 464cca9e-7c07-11eb-bb7a-00155d0001ca https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=72551 Fakulteta za kmetijstvo in biosistemske vede 0 0 0