20.500.12556/DKUM-59070 Kritična presoja uporabnosti modelov za napovedovanje finančne stiske v Sloveniji Critical Assessment of Usefulness of Financial Distress Prediction Models in Slovenia V sedanjem dinamičnem in nepredvidljivem gospodarskem ter finančnem okolju je napovedovanje finančne stiske podjetja izredno pomembno za vse deležnike, ki so kakor koli povezani s podjetjem. V zadnjih 50 letih so bili v svetu na podlagi različnih matematično-statističnih metod razviti številni modeli za napovedovanje finančne stiske. Pri tem se postavlja vprašanje prenosljivosti modelov za napovedovanje finančne stiske v druga ekonomska okolja in časovna obdobja. Magistrsko delo obravnava uporabnost treh modelov za napovedovanje finančne stiske: Altmanov model, Springatov model in model Zmijewskega na vzorcu izbranih slovenskih podjetij v obdobju od leta 2007 do leta 2014. Izbrani vzorec sestavlja 90 podjetij iz avtomobilske industrije, ki so dobavitelji delov za prvo vgradnjo in opreme za proizvajalce avtomobilov. V okviru koncepta finančne stiske je kot kriterij za razvrščanje podjetij med uspešna in neuspešna uporabljen kriterij pokritja obresti. Na osnovi kriterijev napovedne moči je izvedena analiza učinkovitosti izbranih modelov glede na rezultate izvornih modelov ter glede na velikost in dejavnost podjetja. Rezultati analize kažejo, da je napovedna moč modelov za napovedovanje finančne stiske na vzorcu slovenskih podjetij nižja od napovedne moči izvornih modelov. Iz analize je tudi razvidno, da se napovedna moč modelov razlikuje tako glede na velikost kot tudi glede na dejavnost podjetja. Kljub omejitvam pa vrednosti vseh treh modelov v obdobju od leta 2004 do leta 2014 dobro odražajo vpliv gospodarske in finančne krize na poslovanje podjetij. In current dynamic and unpredictable economic and financial environment, the financial distress prediction is extremely important for all stakeholders who are in various ways connected with the company. In the last 50 years, a number of financial distress prediction models, based on various mathematical and statistical methods, have been constructed. This raises the question whether the financial distress prediction models are transferable to other economic environments and periods. This master's thesis deals with the usefulness of the following three financial distress prediction models: Altman's model, Springate's model and Zmijewski's model, based on a sample of Slovenian companies in the period from 2007 to 2014. The selected sample consists of 90 companies - from the automotive supplier industry delivering parts and equipment, to car producers. Within the concept of financial distress, as a criterion for classifying companies between successful and unsuccessful, the criterion of interest coverage is applied. Based on the criteria of the predictive power, we have carried out an analysis of the effectiveness of the selected models compared with the results of the original models and with regard to the company size and activity. The results of the analysis indicate that the predictive power of the financial distress prediction models on a sample of Slovenian companies is lower than the predictive power of original models. The study also shows that the predictive power of the models differs both in terms of size and in terms of activity of the company. Despite the limitations, the outcomes of all three models in the period from 2004 to 2014 show very well the impact of economic and financial crisis on business. finančna stiska model za napovedovanja finančne stiske Altmanov model Springatov model model Zmijewskega avtomobilska industrija napovedna moč. financial distress financial distress prediction model Altman's model Springate's model Zmijewski's model automotive industry predictive power. true true false [A. Z. Kink] Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Magistrsko delo 2016-05-03 17:55:35 2016-12-09 09:55:02 2022-06-19 03:06:38 2019-07-11 11:01:35 2016 0 Maribor 0 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 658.14/.17 12643100 URN:SI:UM:DK:30K1WA6H MAG_Kink_Anton_Zvonko_2016.pdf MAG_Kink_Anton_Zvonko_2016.pdf 1 A983B10E1402F64BE0230318BC744A77 209dd9c9c09623144070ac011f7a65d1bbb1e27f274b50a17fc235af243bb04a b51ab0ad-7c0c-11eb-bb7a-00155d0001ca https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=94584 Ekonomsko-poslovna fakulteta 0 0 0