20.500.12556/DKUM-59980 Načrtovanje prototipa sistema za napovedovanje v Excelu in njegova uporaba v logistiki Design of a prototype forecasting system in Excel and its application in logistics V magistrskem delu bomo podrobno predstavili več definicij pojma »napovedovanje« in ključne dejavnike, ki vplivajo na potrebo podjetij po napovedovanju. Omenili bomo tudi splošne težave, s katerimi se podjetja srečujejo pri napovedovanju, in postopke za omilitev teh težav. Pri opisu sistemov za napovedovanje bomo podrobno opredelili z njimi povezane ključne pojme, še posebej pojem »sistem za napovedovanje«, in podali tudi svojo definicijo. Natančno bomo opisali uporabljene metode za napovedovanje in ostale pristope za izdelavo modelov napovedi, ki so prisotni v prototipu. Izdelani prototip bomo najprej podrobno preizkusili z uporabo hipotetičnih simulacij, kjer bomo izdelali napovedi za specifične primere rasti, padcev, stagnacije itd. Na koncu bomo s pomočjo prototipa izdelali napovedi za pet različnih podjetij. Izdelani modeli napovedi bodo predstavljeni numerično in grafično. Posamezne modele napovedi bomo med seboj primerjali in opredelili njihovo uspešnost. Na koncu bomo predstavili še potencialne nadgradnje prototipa. In this master's thesis, we will describe in detail several definitions of the term “forecasting” and preset key factors that influences companies need to forecast. We will mention some basic difficulties companies have when forecasting and steps to eliviate these difficulties. In the description of various forecasting systems we will define the term “forecasting system” in the context that applies to this work as well as our definition. We will describe the various forecasting methods that are present in this prototype and other approaches used to create forecasting models. The prototype will be tested in detail first with the use of hypothetical simulations, where we will make predictions for specific examples of growth, falls, stagnation, etc. In the end we will use the created prototype to create forecasting models for 5 different companies. The models will be presented numerically and graphically. Each forecasting model will be compared to others and their success evaluated. Finally, we will present potential future upgrades for the prototype. načrtovanje prototip napovedovanje Excel uporaba v logistiki regresija Brownova metoda Holtova metoda Holt-Wintersova metoda design prototype forecasting Excel application in logistics regression Browns method Holts method Holt-Winters method true true false [U. Novina] Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Magistrsko delo/naloga 2016-06-03 13:42:55 2016-07-01 14:39:04 2022-06-22 03:05:22 2019-07-11 11:31:49 2016 0 Celje 0 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 004.45 512779325 URN:SI:UM:DK:YW3OS6YW MAG_Novina_Uros_2016.pdf MAG_Novina_Uros_2016.pdf 1 966696AE072037AD636387ABB1FB1F57 4fee33f094f208debd153fef1f8faf1e7b0e20691b495fe982b8787ac5292641 a0d90f70-7c0c-11eb-bb7a-00155d0001ca https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=93488 Fakulteta za logistiko 0 0 0