20.500.12556/DKUM-67915 Primerjava uspešnosti uporabe tehnične in fundamentalne analize pri napovedovanju gibanja indeksa Dow Jones Industrial Average Comparing the performance of technical and fundamental analysis in predicting the movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index V diplomskem projetku ugotavljamo uporabnost fundamentalne in tehnične analize na delniških indeksih. Investitorji si želijo vse bolj razumeti, katera metoda je primernejša za odločanje o investicijah. Tako smo v delu prikazali primerjavo obeh analiz za napovedovanje gibanja vrednosti. V diplomskem projetku je predstavljen in opredeljen princip analiziranja na oba omenjena načina. Prvi, tehnični princip, temelji na ugotavljanju reakcije cen na grafikonih. Drugi, fundamentalni pristop, omogoči vpogled v notranjo vrednost indeksa, ki jo primerja z njegovo tržno vrednostjo. V delu smo ugotovili, da velik vpliv pri pravilnem ocenjevanju gibanja vrednosti igra trenutni usmerjen primarni trend gibanja. Tehnična analiza v delu se je pri napovedanju vrednosti izkazala kot primernejša. Med njima je prišlo do manjših vrednostnih razlik. Ugotovili smo, da je fundamentalna analiza obsežnejša kot tehnična analiza in ima rok učinkovitosti v daljšem obdobju. Za odločanje posameznika je primerno uporabiti oba tipa analiz. Če pa se investitor odloča samo za en princip, se izkazuje, da je učinkovitost odvisna od dolžine časovnega obdobja. In the thesis we determine the utility of fundamental and technical analysis of equity indices. Investors are increasingly interested in determining which method is more appropriate for decision making in investing. For that reason, we presented the comparison of both mentioned types of analyses in forecasting the movement of the index values. In the thesis we defined both aforementioned types of analyses. The first approach made use of the technical principle and is based on determining the reaction of prices on the charts. The second approach is based on the fundamentals principle and gives an insight into the internal value of the index, then compares it to its market value. We discovered that the correct assesment of the primary trend plays an influence on the value of the indices. The technical analysis proved to be more successful in predicting the value. There were minor differences in the value among both types of analyses. We discovered that the fundamental analysis is more appropriate in the long run compared to the technical analysis. For an investor it is appropriate to use both types of analyzes. If the investor had to choose between them, the thesis showed that their effectiveness depends on the length of the time period. tehnična analiza fundamentalna analiza delniški indeks ugotovitev uspešnosti primerjava rezultatov technical analysis fundamental analysis equity indices success rate comparison of results true true false [T. Miuc] Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Delo diplomskega projekta/projektno delo 2017-09-03 19:14:34 2017-11-29 12:27:39 2022-08-01 14:36:49 2019-07-11 16:35:32 2017 0 Maribor 0 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 336.76 12899868 URN:SI:UM:DK:XGZXGN2U UN_Miuc_Tomi_2017.pdf UN_Miuc_Tomi_2017.pdf 1 FB5C2A86488CF77CEC0C0DD0B6F48397 81706a1372589092b9748b79cbb20a6d500ef9daa8bfe0398604404613f19a70 9e6049d5-7c0e-11eb-bb7a-00155d0001ca 20.500.12556/dkum/5e8a5cf8-d85e-46c3-a62f-ad6b1b08a2b4 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=116866 Ekonomsko-poslovna fakulteta 0 0 0