20.500.12556/DKUM-78159-1393267a-90c2-504c-c6fa-7b3c2e4e2b33 Forecasting COVID-19 The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019 a pandemic on March 11th, pointing to the over 118,000 cases in over 110 countries and territories around the world at that time. At the time of writing this manuscript, the number of confirmed cases has been surging rapidly past the half-million mark, emphasizing the sustained risk of further global spread. Governments around the world are imposing various containment measures while the healthcare system is bracing itself for tsunamis of infected individuals that will seek treatment. It is therefore important to know what to expect in terms of the growth of the number of cases, and to understand what is needed to arrest the very worrying trends. To that effect, we here show forecasts obtained with a simple iteration method that needs only the daily values of confirmed cases as input. The method takes into account expected recoveries and deaths, and it determines maximally allowed daily growth rates that lead away from exponential increase toward stable and declining numbers. Forecasts show that daily growth rates should be kept at least below 5% if we wish to see plateaus any time soon - unfortunately far from reality in most countries to date. We provide an executable as well as the source code for a straightforward application of the method on data from other countries. COVID-19 pandemic disease dynamics exponential growth virality COVID-19 pandemija dinamika bolezni eksponentna rast viralnost true true true Frontiers Media Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Znanstveno delo 2020-11-06 13:02:18 2020-11-06 13:02:21 2025-02-05 03:13:05 2020-11-20 03:35:29 2020 0 0 Str. 1-5 št. članka 127 Letn. 8 Apr. 2020 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 2020-03-30 2020-04-01 2020-04-08 616-036.21 20267016 25194760 10.3389/fphy.2020.00127 2296-424X URN:SI:UM:DK:P5NMEM1S Perc-2020-Forecasting_COVID-19.pdf Perc-2020-Forecasting_COVID-19.pdf 1 C35CA5BAC443EF8E8780315B088F14A8 c4a303279c0b74f0a4558a7f0925e87504b256fba7d97f7eaf86b65249543478 485442ef-e2e4-11ef-ba28-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=188436 https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2020.00127 0 678dc4b8-e2e4-11ef-ba28-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=188437 Fakulteta za naravoslovje in matematiko Medicinska fakulteta 0 0 0