20.500.12556/DKUM-78337 Prostorski vidiki izpostavljenosti Slovencev klopnemu meningoencefalitisu in lymski boreliozi v luči podnebnih sprememb Spatial aspects of tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis exposure in Slovenia from the climate change perspective Klopi so, takoj za komarji, drugi najpomembnejši prenašalci nalezljivih bolezni, zaradi česar nedvoumno igrajo pomembno vlogo pri ogrožanju javnega zdravja. V Evropi kot najbolj pogosti klopni bolezni veljata lymska borelioza in klopni meningoencefalitis, katerih vektor je navadni oz. gozdni klop (Ixodes ricinus), ki je na območju Slovenije splošno razširjena vrsta. Slovenija predstavlja endemično regijo tako za lymsko boreliozo, kot tudi za klopni meningoencefalitis, prav tako pa spada med države z najvišjo zabeleženo incidenco obeh omenjenih bolezni. Ker so geografska razširjenost, abundanca ter preživetje navadnega klopa v veliki meri odvisne od različnih abiotskih in biotskih dejavnikov kot tudi mikroklimatskih pogojev, se pojavlja vprašanje, kako bodo na prostorski odtis incidence klopnih bolezni vplivale neizbežne prihajajoče globalne podnebne spremembe. Tako je osrednji namen magistrskega dela ugotoviti, kje v Sloveniji se nahajajo statistično značilna žarišča za lymsko boreliozo in klopni meningoencefalitis, izdelati oceno tveganja za okužbo z obravnavanima klopnima boleznima, tako v sedanjosti, kot tudi ob koncu 21. stoletja, ter napovedati katere slovenske regije bodo v prihodnosti najbolj rizične glede na možnost okužbe z omenjenima klopnima boleznima. Za izdelavo napovedi je uporabljen model regresijskih dreves in model geografsko obtežene regresije. Ocenjeno je, da se bo prostorska slika tveganja za okužbo z obravnavanima klopnima boleznima v prihodnosti spremenila predvsem na račun spremenjenih podnebnih potez, rabe tal in nekaterih socio-ekonomskih kazalcev. Ticks are, after mosquitoes, the second most important vectors of infectious diseases. They play an important role in threatening the public health. In Europe, the most common tick-borne diseases are Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne meningoencephalitis, caused mainly by the sheep tick (Ixodes ricinus) vector. In Slovenia, this tick species is widespread. Moreover, Slovenia is known as an endemic region for both Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne meningoencephalitis, and is also one of the countries with the highest recorded incidence of both mentioned tick-borne diseases. The geographical distribution, abundance and survival of sheep ticks is largely depended on various abiotic and biotic factors, as well as microclimatic conditions. This facts lead to the question, how will the oncoming inevitable global climate changes affect the spatial distribution of tick-borne diseases in Slovenia. Thus, the main focus of this master's thesis is: (1) to determine where are statistically significant foci of Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne meningoencephalitis in Slovenia, (2) to assess the current and forthcoming potential risk of infection with tick-borne diseases on the municipal level, (3) and to predict which Slovenian regions could be faced with higher potential risk of the given tick-borne disease infection in the second half of the century. To realize these predictions, the regression tree model and the geographically weighted regression model were applied. We discovered, that the spatial distribution of Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne meningoencephalitis hotspots could change significantly in the future. Future changes are manly influenced by climate predictors, as well as land use and socio-economic drivers. klopne bolezni klopni meningoencefalitis lymska borelioza podnebne spremembe prostorsko modeliranje tick-borne diseases tick-borne meningoencephalitis Lyme borreliosis climate change spatial modeling true true false [D. Donša] Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Magistrsko delo/naloga 2020-12-09 20:21:53 2020-12-24 11:10:33 2022-08-09 18:59:17 2020-12-25 03:23:14 2020 0 Maribor 0 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 616.98:579.834.1(497.4)(043.2) 44306947 URN:SI:UM:DK:SP1D4GNY MAG_Donsa_Dasa_2020.pdf MAG_Donsa_Dasa_2020.pdf 1 F581F2973B63DC14B45192E1E8BB64F9 4494a079bb7bf83d4d85a5822de39e8c241b461f91a26858724b25d64687bb93 08e8c490-7c12-11eb-bb7a-00155d0001ca 20.500.12556/dkum/5cd2149b-7a99-4d67-95f1-1ced9a01833c https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=147936 Fakulteta za naravoslovje in matematiko 0 0 0