20.500.12556/DKUM-79039 Analiza dejavnikov gibanja valutnega para evro/ameriški dolar Analysis of eur/usd currency pair variability V diplomskem projektu analiziramo dejavnike, ki vplivajo na gibanje valutnega para EUR/USD. Vsaka država ali denarna unija ima svojo valuto. Menjava valute ene za drugo nam omogoča devizni trg, ki pa nam poda vrednost deviznega tečaja. Devizni tečaj je pomemben podatek, saj omogoča primerjavo vrednosti določenega blaga v različnih delih sveta. V teoretičnem delu opredelimo in podrobneje obrazložimo teoretično osnovo deviznega tečaja in določitev njegove vrednosti. Opišemo tudi teorije deviznega tečaja ter dejavnike, ki vplivajo na njegovo spremembo. Definiramo devizni trg in predstavimo njegove udeležence in transakcije, ki se na trgu odvijajo. Empirični del diplomskega projekta zajema analizo dejavnikov, ki vplivajo na gibanje valutnega para EUR/USD. Namen analize je obrazložitev dejavnikov, ki so vplivali na spremembe vrednosti tega valutnega para. Po izvedeni analizi bomo razumeli kako se vrednost valutnega para EUR/USD giblje v odvisnosti od sprememb makroekonomskih dejavnikov ter tekočega dela plačilne bilance. Zaradi kompleksnosti problema in posledic tveganja s to analizo želimo doseči dober okvir za napovedovanje prihodnjih sprememb. In the graduation thesis we analyze the variables that influence the dynamics of the currency pair EUR/USD. Every country or monetary union has its own currency. These currencies can be traded on the foreign exchange market, which gives us the exchange rate. Exchange rate is important as it allows us to compare the value of certain goods in different parts of the world. In the theoretical part, we define and explain in more detail the theoretical basis of the exchange rate and how the it is determined. We also describe exchange rate theories and the variables that influence its changes. We also define the foreign exchange market and present its participants and the transactions that take place in the market. In the empirical part of the graduation thesis, we analyze the variables that influence the dynamics of the currency pair EUR/USD. The purpose of the analysis is to find and explain the variables that influenced the changes in its dynamics. After the analysis, we will understand how the value of the currency pair EUR/USD fluctuates depending on changes in macroeconomic factors and current part of the balance of payments. Due to the complexity of the problem and the consequences of the risk, we want to use this analysis to achieve a good framework for predicting future changes. valutni par devizni trg devizni tečaj makroekonomski dejavniki transakcije plačilna bilanca. currency pair foreign exchange market exchange rate macroeconomic factors transactions balance of payments. true true false M. Bošnjak Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Delo diplomskega projekta/projektno delo 2021-04-21 14:56:23 2021-09-06 12:31:43 2022-08-09 20:05:26 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2021 0 [Maribor 0 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 339.74 75314691 UN_Bosnjak_Marko_2021.pdf UN_Bosnjak_Marko_2021.pdf 1 83CE16188C8102B3DFC94B644759D713 9816dbf47f93d0505a02d37557e044f35f93a79d154a52d9f358ff691d808859 41c7b8a5-a65c-11eb-b3a6-00155d581298 20.500.12556/dkum/f4d62adb-6ff4-453d-9b85-221d1f4a4392 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=149938 Ekonomsko-poslovna fakulteta 0 0 0