20.500.12556/DKUM-84076 Multikriterijski dinamični model za napovedovanje ekonomske upravičenosti uvedbe letal na vodikove gorivne celice doktorska disertacija Dynamic multicriteria model for predicting the economic justification of the introduction of aircraft on hydrogen fuel cells Zaradi potrebe po zmanjšanju negativnih učinkov letalskega prometa na okolje se razvija več novih načinov pogona, med njimi tudi tehnologija gorivnih celic. Ta tehnologija obeta zmanjšanje emisij s pomočjo vodika kot pogonskega goriva. Čeprav je ta tehnologija obetav-na z okoljskega vidika, pa se pojavljata vprašanji o njeni tehnični izvedljivosti in ekonomski upravičenosti. Pri odločanju o uporabi te tehnologije v letalskem prometu igrajo ključno vlogo neposredni operativni stroški. V naši raziskavi smo preučevali, kako ključni tehnološki, ekonomski in okoljski dejavniki vplivajo na neposredne operativne stroške letal, ki uporabljajo vodikove gorivne celice. Primerjali smo jih s klasičnimi letali in ugotovili, kaj bi bilo potrebno storiti, da bi uvedba letal na vodikove gorivne celice postala ekonomsko smiselna z vidika neposrednih operativ-nih stroškov. V ta namen smo razvili dinamični model uvedbe letal na vodikove gorivne celi-ce, ki upošteva tehnične lastnosti 19-sedežnega letala na vodikove gorivne celice. Spremljali in simulirali smo gibanje neposrednih stroškov, ki so odvisni od različnih parametrov, kot so gibanje cen goriva, okoljski ukrepi, razvojni scenariji in parametri gibanja stroškov produk-cijskih cen, stroškov dela in pristojbin. Pri modelu smo uporabili pristop konstantnih stopenj rasti ključnih parametrov in pristop po načelu realnih opcij, pri čemer smo skozi simulacije Monte Carlo upoštevali, da pri gibanju ključnih parametrov prihaja do različnih nihanj. Ta pristop zajema gibanje parametrov, ki so bližje poslovni naravi teh kazalcev, in poda bolj natančen odgovor v obliki verjetnosti. Na podlagi našega modela, ki smo ga testirali na primeru dveh letalskih družb, smo ugotovi-li, kdaj in v katerih razvojnih scenarijih bi prišlo do izenačenja neposrednih operativnih stroškov letal na vodikove gorivne celice in klasičnih letal. Ti zaključki so izjemno pomembni pri oblikovanju smernic za prometno in okoljsko politiko, ki bi lahko prispevale k hitrejši uvedbi tehnologije gorivnih celic v letalski promet. Razvoj in uvedba tehnologije vodikovih gorivnih celic predstavljata pomemben korak v smeri bolj trajnostnega in okolju prijaznega letalskega prometa, kot smo ugotovili v naši raziskavi, pa bi bil ta korak izvedljiv tudi z vidika neposrednih operativnih stroškov letal. Due to the urgent need to reduce the negative impact of air traffic on the environment, several new propulsion technologies are being developed, including fuel cell technology, which promises to reduce emissions by using hydrogen as a fuel. However, despite the promising environmental benefits of this technology, questions arise regarding its technological feasbility and economic viability. When evaluating whether this technology will be attractive for use in air transport by airlines, direct operating costs play a crucial role. In our research, we analysed the impact of key technological, economic, and environmental factors on the direct operating costs of hydrogen fuel cell aircraft. Based on a comparison with conventional aircraft, we addressed the conditions and measures that would contribute to making the introduction of hydrogen fuel cell aircraft economically justified from the perspective of direct operating costs. We developed a dynamic model of the introduction of hydrogen fuel cell aircraft, which considered the technical characteristics of a 19-seater hydrogen fuel cell aircraft. We monitored and simulated the movement of direct costs depending on numerous parameters, such as fuel price movements, environmental measures, development scenarios, and parameters of the movement of production costs, labour costs, and fees. In the model, we used the approach of constant growth rates of key parameters and the approach based on real options principles, in which we used Monte Carlo simulations to consider different fluctuations in key parameters. The latter approach captures the movement of parameters that are closer to the business nature of these indicators and provides a more precise answer in the form of probability. Based on the results of the model that we tested on two airlines, we identified the year and development scenario in which the direct operating costs of hydrogen fuel cell aircraft would be equal to those of conventional aircraft. These conclusions are very useful in shaping guidelines for transportation and environmental policies that would contribute to the faster implementation of fuel cell technology in aviation. The development and implementation of hydrogen fuel cell technology is certainly an important step towards more sustainable and environmentally friendly aviation, which, as found in the current study, would also be feasible in terms of direct operating costs of aircraft. letala na vodikove gorivne celice neposredni stroški Monte Carlo simulacija realne opcije hydrogen fuel-cell aircraft direct operating costs Monte Carlo simulation real options true true false [M. Marksel] Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Doktorsko delo/naloga 2023-04-06 11:46:54 2023-08-02 12:15:20 2023-08-04 03:04:24 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2023 0 Maribor 0 Maribor XVI, 143 str. 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 [005.521:330.13]:[629.735:662.769.2](043.3) 160477443 DOK_Marksel_Marsenka_2023.pdf DOK_Marksel_Marsenka_2023.pdf 1 C725527252924C9AF63327098C2D8641 78faf1646dff3c218a4fddcf6da3aab52b5a6bfcbc37d7ffe07fdae633902a3d 72ddf1f3-2c64-11ee-b1c7-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=169036 Fakulteta za gradbeništvo, prometno inženirstvo in arhitekturo 0 0 0