20.500.12556/DKUM-84552-45d33ab8-a952-ab04-bc13-cb0d07b9d095 Does debt have threshold effects on medium-term growth? evidence from European union countries Ali obstajajo učinki praga vpliva dolga na srednjeročno gospodarsko rast? primer držav Evropske unije Debt has become an important factor in economic activity and its extent has incentivized many researchers to incorporate it into contemporary growth models. On the positive side, debt has the ability to smoothen private consumption, firms’ investment and government expenditure in relation to their corresponding income, subsequently leading to better capital allocation. However, the history of debt defaults and lessons from European sovereign debt crises, which were accompanied by strict austerity measures, have warned us about the danger of debt overhang and unsustainable debt burdens. This paper tackles the question of the existence of a turning point, at which the negative effects of debt start to prevail in the economic process. In the sample of European Union countries in the period from 1995 to 2019, the author of this paper investigated the presence of threshold effects of government, non-financial corporate and household debt on medium-term growth following the paper by Mika and Žumer (2017). The author first confirmed the concave-shaped relationship between public debt and growth with a threshold of 111.6% of GDP, based on Eurostat debt-to-GDP data. In contrast, private debt was found to have first lag effects with an accompanied convex-shaped relationship between private debt and growth and with a corresponding threshold of 149.8% of GDP. Next, the author divided private debt into non-financial corporate and household debt to investigate a more detailed relationship between debt and growth. Corresponding to the Global Debt Database, the concave-shaped relationship between public debt and growth was confirmed with a threshold of 104.8% of GDP. Both of the investigated types of private debt confirmed the previously explored lagged impact on medium-term growth and a convex-shaped relationship between non-financial corporate and household debt and growth. The threshold of non-financial corporate debt stands at 138.3% of GDP, while that for household debt is 145.1% of GDP. Considering the presence of thresholds may offer an important message to economic policymakers, as timely and suitable governance can lead to either higher economic growth or prevent adverse effects of excessive indebtedness. Dolg je postal pomemben dejavnik gospodarske aktivnosti in v skladu z razvojem dolga so ga številni raziskovalci vključili v sodobne modele gospodarske rasti. Pozitivni vidik zadolževanja predstavlja glajenje osebne potrošnje, investicij podjetij in vladnih izdatkov v odnosu do njihovega dohodka, kar vodi v boljšo alokacijo kapitala v gospodarstvu. Vendar so se v zgodovini pojavljali primeri bankrotov držav in izkušnje iz evropske dolžniške krize s spremljajočimi ostrimi varčevalnimi ukrepi, ki so nas opozorile na nevarnost prekomerne ravni in bremena dolga. V tem prispevku raziskujemo obstoj morebitnega praga vpliva zadolževanja na gospodarsko rast, pri katerem se izražajo negativni učinki dolga na gospodarsko aktivnost. Izhajajoč iz pristopa Mika & Žumar (2017) obravnavamo obstoj pragov povezave med dolgom vlade, podjetij in gospodinjstev ter srednjeročno gospodarsko rastjo na vzorcu držav Evropske unije med leti 1995 in 2019. Prvič, na podlagi podatkov Eurostat-a o javnem in zasebnem dolgu smo potrdili konkavno obliko povezave med javnim dolgom in gospodarsko rastjo z maksimumom pri 116,6 odstotkih BDP. Pri zasebnem dolgu smo odkrili enoletni odložen vpliv zasebnega dolga na gospodarsko rast in potrdili konveksno obliko povezave z minimumom pri 149,8 odstotkih BDP. Drugič, s pomočjo podatkov iz Global Debt Database smo razdelili zasebni dolg na nefinančni korporativni oziroma podjetniški dolg in dolg gospodinjstev, s čimer smo lahko podrobneje proučevali povezavo med dolgom in gospodarsko rastjo. Med javnim dolgom in gospodarsko rastjo smo potrdili konkavno obliko povezave z maksimumom pri 104,8 odstotkih BDP. Za oba tipa zasebnega dolga smo potrdili predhodno ugotovljen odložen vpliv na gospodarsko rast in konveksno obliko povezave. Pri vplivu podjetniškega dolga na gospodarsko rast smo potrdili prag z minimumom pri 138,3 odstotkih BDP, medtem ko smo pri vplivu dolga gospodinjstev na gospodarsko rast potrdili prag z minimumom pri 145,1 odstotkih BDP. Poznavanje praga vpliva zadolževanja na gospodarsko rast nudi odločevalcem ekonomske politike pomembno sporočilo, saj lahko ti s pravočasnim in primernim ukrepanjem omogočijo bodisi višjo gospodarsko rast bodisi preprečijo potencialne negativne učinke prekomerne zadolženosti. zadolženost srednjeročna gospodarska rast učinki praga true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Znanstveno delo 2023-06-19 16:53:06 2023-06-19 16:53:06 2025-06-06 03:06:07 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2022 0 0 str. 1-18 no. 2 Vol. 68 2022 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 2022-05-01 330.34:061.1EU 140136451 10.2478/ngoe-2022-0007 0547-3101 https://journals.um.si/index.php/oe/article/view/2072 1 fff4f923-0eb0-11ee-9241-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=168170 https://journals.um.si/index.php/oe/article/view/2072 1 8c066b8c-4219-11f0-9cf0-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=191838 Ekonomsko-poslovna fakulteta Naše gospodarstvo 0 0 0