20.500.12556/DKUM-88630 Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant. Some predicted epidemic scenarios for realistic parameter values yield new COVID-19 infection waves within two years, and high daily case numbers in the endemic state, even without introducing VPs and granting more freedom to their holders. Still, suitable adaptive policies can avoid unfavorable outcomes. While VP holders could initially be allowed more freedom, the lack of full vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility will require accelerated (re-)vaccination, wide-spread immunity surveillance, and/or minimal long-term common restrictions. SIRS model vaccination pass stability analysis sindrom sistemskega vnetnega odziva cepilni potni list stabilnostna analiza true false true Nature Portfolio Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Evropa; Znanstveno delo 2024-05-17 03:18:18 2024-07-15 12:33:02 2024-07-16 03:57:11 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2022 0 0 Str. 1-14 Št. članka 23 Letn. 2 2022 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 2021-08-17 2022-02-03 2022-03-03 616-036.21 100312835 10.1038/s43856-022-00084-w 2730-664X Krueger-2022-Risk_assessment_of_COVID-19_epide.pdf Krueger-2022-Risk_assessment_of_COVID-19_epide.pdf 1 C0EF059EE247242D5196C18CEDE97D18 c6c5c9cf78d0df7d775e0229ef3bb16ee2ad41c20e8a39bcc44daa1c54baa86c 79b85a54-4295-11ef-99b3-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=181477 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00084-w 0 86b2a9c3-4295-11ef-99b3-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=181478 Fakulteta za naravoslovje in matematiko 0 0 0