20.500.12556/DKUM-88851 Endogenous social distancing and its underappreciated impact on the epidemic curve Social distancing is an efective strategy to mitigate the impact of infectious diseases. If sick or healthy, or both, predominantly socially distance, the epidemic curve fattens. Contact reductions may occur for diferent reasons during a pandemic including health-related mobility loss (severity of symptoms), duty of care for a member of a high-risk group, and forced quarantine. Other decisions to reduce contacts are of a more voluntary nature. In particular, sick people reduce contacts consciously to avoid infecting others, and healthy individuals reduce contacts in order to stay healthy. We use game theory to formalize the interaction of voluntary social distancing in a partially infected population. This improves the behavioral micro-foundations of epidemiological models, and predicts diferential social distancing rates dependent on health status. The model's key predictions in terms of comparative statics are derived, which concern changes and interactions between social distancing behaviors of sick and healthy. We ft the relevant parameters for endogenous social distancing to an epidemiological model with evidence from infuenza waves to provide a benchmark for an epidemic curve with endogenous social distancing. Our results suggest that spreading similar in peak and case numbers to what partial immobilization of the population produces, yet quicker to pass, could occur endogenously. Going forward, eventual social distancing orders and lockdown policies should be benchmarked against more realistic epidemic models that take endogenous social distancing into account, rather than be driven by static, and therefore unrealistic, estimates for social mixing that intrinsically overestimate spreading. COVID-19 pandemic disease dynamics exponential growth virality COVID-19 pandemija dinamika bolezni eksponentna rast viralnost true false true Nature Publishing Group Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Znanstveno delo 2024-05-30 03:30:00 2024-08-14 14:44:00 2024-08-15 03:52:58 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2021 0 0 Str. 1-10 Št. članka 3093 Letn. 11 2021 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 2020-08-25 2021-01-21 2021-02-04 616-036.21 50588675 10.1038/s41598-021-82770-8 2045-2322 Gosak-2021-Endogenous_social_distancing_and_it.pdf Gosak-2021-Endogenous_social_distancing_and_it.pdf 1 AB9277F2287C3DCCAEF18B00C9561DD8 cb08c7ce34dfa55a1f74028d733cbcede3c5cfdd27e4302befcdba8aa57859a3 a3fc01f5-5a3a-11ef-990d-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=182433 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82770-8 0 ba46f666-5a3a-11ef-990d-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=182434 Fakulteta za naravoslovje in matematiko Medicinska fakulteta 0 0 0