20.500.12556/DKUM-89063 Road freight transport forecasting a fuzzy Monte-Carlo simulation-based model selection approach As important as the classical approaches such as Akaike's AIC information and Bayesian BIC criterion in model-selection mechanism are, they have limitations. As an alternative, a novel modeling design encompasses a two-stage approach that integrates Fuzzy logic and Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs). In the first stage, an entire family of ARIMA model candidates with the corresponding information-based, residual-based, and statistical criteria is identified. In the second stage, the Mamdani fuzzy model (MFM) is used to uncover interrelationships hidden among previously obtained models criteria. To access the best forecasting model, the MCSs are also used for different settings of weights loaded on the fuzzy rules. The obtained model is developed to predict the road freight transport in Slovenia in the context of choosing the most appropriate electronic toll system. Results show that the mechanism works well when searching for the best model that provides a well-fit to the real data. forecasting road transport electronic toll system Monte Carlo simulation ARIMA models logistics napovedovanje cestnega transporta cestni transport elektronski sistem cestninjenja simulacija Monte Carlo modeli ARIMA logistika true false true Strojarski fakultet, Elektrotehnički fakultet, Građevinski fakultet Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Znanstveno delo 2024-06-11 12:01:00 2024-06-11 12:14:06 2024-06-12 03:12:27 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2022 0 0 Str. 81-91 Št. 1 Letn. 29 2022 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 2022-02-15 519.2 95822851 10.17559/TV-20210110140112 1330-3651 Dragan-2022-Road_Freight_Transport_Forecasting.pdf Dragan-2022-Road_Freight_Transport_Forecasting.pdf 1 F726AEE17909762B059B78E0635471F1 c6a45db57e175c7226834ebb413fca2ce5e8f8b5035ccfa2774ffb365bf83dd3 d02ac4ea-27da-11ef-b3ed-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=180392 https://doi.org/10.17559/TV-20210110140112 1 827acdbd-27d9-11ef-b3ed-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=180386 Fakulteta za logistiko 0 0 0