20.500.12556/DKUM-90088 Forecasting US tourists' inflow to Slovenia by modified holt-winters damped model a case in the tourism industry logistics and supply chains Forecasting is important in many branches of logistics, including the logistics related to Tourism supply chains. With an increasing inflow of American tourists, planning and forecasting the US tourists' inflow to Slovenia have gained far more importance attention amongst scholars and practitioners. This study, therefore, was conducted to forecast the American tourists' inflow to Slovenia using one of the predictive models based on the exponential smoothing approach, namely Holt-Winters damped additive (HWDA) exponential smoothing method. The model was modified by several improvements, while the obtained results were generalized to other supply chain components. The results show that the forecasting system can predict well the observed inflow, while the methodology used to derive the model might have enriched the plethora of existing practical forecasting approaches in the tourism domain. Benchmarking demonstrates that the proposed model outperforms a competitive ARIMA model and official forecasts. The practical implications are also discussed in this paper. tourism forecasting Holt-Winters model US tourists supply chains logistics turizem napovedovanje Holt-Wintersov model ameriški turisti oskrbovalne verige logistika true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Članek v reviji 2024-08-22 13:42:36 2024-08-22 13:54:46 2026-05-06 11:56:50 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2019 0 0 str. 11-30 št. 1 Letn. 10 2019 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 2019-06-28 519.2 513008701 10.2478/jlst-2019-0002 2232-4968 https://doi.org/10.2478/jlst-2019-0002 1 aacfee84-607b-11ef-bd3a-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=183038 RAZ_Dragan_Dejan_2019.pdf RAZ_Dragan_Dejan_2019.pdf 1 9ACF3C68D4D68E03A9EFDBE64A59B6DC 55f0fb8c0dabe1f27a78cfd80cadc2585329f7673009c18dc0c5426f798939a5 3160788f-607d-11ef-bd3a-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=183044 Fakulteta za logistiko Logistics, supply chain, sustainability and global challenges 0 0 0