20.500.12556/DKUM-91532 Economic efficiency analysis of diversification in milk farm business using real options approach Analiza ekonomske učinkovitosti diverzifikacije poslovanja mlečnih kmetij z uporabo metod realnih opcij The significance of the agricultural sector in the economy of Republika Srpska, as well as the importance of dairy cattle farming within agriculture, determined the thematic field of the research, which had several key research objectives. The first objective of the dissertation was to determine the economic efficiency of the investment in milk production and sales on family farms with 8-15 dairy cows in Republika Srpska. The second objective was to assess the risk, or volatility, of such investment projects. The third objective was to calculate the additional value of diversification in transitioning from selling milk to milk processing into cheese on the same farm and determine the additional project's strategic value. The final objective was to compare the case studies of the analyzed farms based on selected indicators. Primary data were collected by interviewing five farmers who produce milk and process it into cheese while secondary data were obtained from various sources. Key data processing methods included Cost-Benefit Analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, and Black-Scholes and Binomial methods for evaluating real options. Based on the results of the analysis of milk production projects on small farms in Republika Srpska, it was concluded that these projects are economically unsustainable due to their negative and insufficiently satisfactory indicators. Through Monte Carlo simulations, it was determined that changes in input and output prices have an impact on such projects. Diversification of milk production into cheese processing on small farms is economically efficient, as the option values of the additional project are satisfactory and the NPVS, representing the total value of the additional project, ranges from €28,000 to €143,000 for all five analyzed farms. Based on the farm analysis, the conclusion is that the farm with the highest number of dairy cows implements an extensive feeding method, and sells its products at a prominent tourist location in rural areas has the best indicators and represents the best business model for small milk farms in the territory of Republika Srpska. Pomen kmetijskega sektorja v gospodarstvu Republike Srbske, kot tudi pomen mlečne govedoreje v kmetijstvu, sta določila tematsko področje te raziskave, ki je imela več ključnih raziskovalnih ciljev. Prvi cilj te disertacije je bil določiti ekonomsko upravičenost projekta proizvodnje in prodaje mleka na družinskih kmetijah 8-15 molznic v Republiki Srpski. Drugi cilj je bil oceniti tveganje, volatilnosti takšnih projektov. Naslednji cilj je bil na analiziranih kmetijah oceniti dodano vrednost projekta prehoda od neposredne prodaje mleka do predelave v sir, kot tudi določiti strateško vrednost opcijskega projekta. Končni cilj je bil primerjati ocene kazalnika študije primerov petih analiziranih kmetij. Disertacija je v manjši meri uporabila sekundarne podatke, medtem ko so bili primarni podatki pomembnejši in so bili zbrani na podlagi anket petih kmetij, ki proizvajajo mleko in ga predelujejo v sir. Ključne metode obdelave podatkov so bile analiza stroškov in koristi, Monte Carlo simulacije ter metode Black-Scholes in binomske metode za oceno realnih možnosti. Na podlagi rezultatov analize projektov proizvodnje mleka na majhnih kmetijah v Republiki Srpski je bilo ugotovljeno, da analizirani projekti zaradi svojih nezadovoljivih kazalnikov niso ekonomsko vzdržni. S 10.000 iteracijami v Monte Carlo simulaciji je bil ugotovljen vpliv sprememb cen vhodov in izhodov. Raznolikost proizvodnje mleka v predelavo sira na majhnih kmetijah rezultira z ekonomsko upravičenostjo, saj so vrednosti neto sedanje vrednosti opcijskega projekta zadovoljive (skupna vrednost opcijskega projekta, se giblje med 28.000 in 143.000 €). Na podlagi rezultatov analize je mogoče sklepati, da ima kmetija z največjim številom molznic, najugodnejše ekonomske kazalnike in ob upoštevanju predpostavljenih vhodnih parametrov analize predstavlja najboljši poslovni model za majhne kmetije z molznic na območju Republike Srpske. Agriculture Milk farming Cheese production Cost-Benefit Analysis Real Options Approach Monte Carlo Simulation kmetijstvo prireja mleka proizvodnja sira analiza stroškov in koristi realne opcijske vrednosti Monte Carlo simulacija true true false Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Doktorsko delo/naloga 2025-01-13 12:52:40 2025-03-13 09:07:25 2026-02-17 12:50:11 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2025 0 Maribor 0 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 227351555 DOK_Jalic_Nemanja_2025.pdf DOK_Jalic_Nemanja_2025.pdf 1 9269494E289155718AD8B10743601360 79cc654ec8a4d2ccbb99b4f24694999a9548e7a3993591c5e169f2fc4430f576 dd65a78e-d4c1-11ef-8b55-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=187931 Fakulteta za kmetijstvo in biosistemske vede 0 0 0