20.500.12556/DKUM-91606 Economic policy and confidence of economic agents - a causal relationship? The purpose of this paper is to study whether innovations in monetary and fiscal policy are a leading indicator of future business and consumer confidence and reverse applying the panel Granger causality analysis to two periods in the history of the euro area: before and after the start of the Great Recession. The results show that Granger causality interaction between the confidence of economic agents and the stance of monetary policy (measured by the shadow rate) is stronger than between the former and the fiscal policy instruments. The European Central Bank (ECB) shadow rate innovations Granger caused business and consumer confidence in both periods, but also indicators of confidence Granger caused the shadow rate. No such feedback could be established between two fiscal policy instruments (government expenditure and revenue growth) and the indicators of confidence. Government spending and revenues Granger caused business confidence in the first subperiod, but not in the second subperiod when the causality reversed. The government revenues Granger caused consumer confidence in the first subperiod, while government expenditures in the second subperiod. Consumer confidence Granger caused government spending in the first subperiod. fiscal policy monetary policy consumer confidence business confidence panel Granger causality fiskalna politika monetarna politika zaupanje potrošnikov poslovno zaupanje Grangerjeva vzročnost poslovno okolje zaupanje true false true Ekonomicko-správní fakulta Masarykovy univerzity Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Znanstveno delo 2025-01-20 08:51:57 2025-01-20 09:13:00 2025-01-21 03:12:18 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2020 0 0 Str. 471-484 št. 4 Letn. 20 2020 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 2020-04-10 2020-09-24 2020-12-17 338.2 46127363 10.2478/revecp-2020-0023 1804-1663 Dajcman-2020-Economic_policy_and_confidence_of.pdf Dajcman-2020-Economic_policy_and_confidence_of.pdf 1 FC67BFB238C57F5EC85FB22420DC7C15 8ba22dda7e27b0a42bfd78957d761a4a6c661b027a6df4c98a895906374a8524 2d666a00-d706-11ef-bddc-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=187978 https://doi.org/10.2478/revecp-2020-0023 0 6d552e03-d703-11ef-bddc-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=187976 Ekonomsko-poslovna fakulteta 0 0 0