20.500.12556/DKUM-91698 A Bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuations This paper quantifies the correlation between U.S. season average prices for hops with U.S. hop stocks and U.S. hop hectarage. The Hop Equilibrium Ratio, a measure of the supply/demand relationship for U.S. hops, was introduced. Through the Bayesian inference method, the authors used these data to calculate the effect an incremental change to one metric had on the probability of directional changes of future U.S. season average prices (SAP). Between 2010 and 2020, the dominance of proprietary varieties created unprecedented cartel-like powers offering opportunities for supply- and price-management. Research results will enable more accurate forecasting and greater price stability in the hop industry. alpha-acid Bayesian theorem brewing industry economies of scale equillbrium hop market alfa kislina Bayesov izrek pivovarska industrija ekonomija ravnovesje trg hmelja true false true Česká akademie zemědělských věd Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Znanstveno delo 2025-01-28 14:29:16 2025-01-28 14:40:48 2025-01-29 03:12:04 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2020 0 0 Str. 519-526 št. 12 Letn. 66 2020 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 2020-06-08 2020-11-11 2020-12-31 663.4 41457155 10.17221/239/2020-AGRICECON 1805-9295 MacKinnon-2020-A_Bayesian_analysis_of_hop_pric.pdf MacKinnon-2020-A_Bayesian_analysis_of_hop_pric.pdf 1 9186A75DFDD351765364CE0BF65B44A6 01bef83b4aa164dad17fad7560c150156f29bb9cf398ead86ccbba958288796c 465b01b0-dd7d-11ef-9187-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=188232 https://doi.org/10.17221/239/2020-AGRICECON 0 dfaeb5d0-dd7b-11ef-9187-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=188228 Fakulteta za kmetijstvo in biosistemske vede 0 0 0