20.500.12556/DKUM-93011 Is there a relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market indices in Bosnia and Herzegovina? Ali obstaja povezava med makroekonomskimi spremenljivkami in borznimi indeksi v Bosni in Hercegovini? The economic growth and development of a country are reflected in many aspects, one of them being the stock market indices. The purpose of the article is to examine and determine the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and stock market indices in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Using quarterly data over the 2010q1-2019q4 period, a cointegration analysis was applied to model this relationship. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to explore the short-run relationship as well as the long-run relationship. The article examined the predictive ability among variables of interest by applying the Granger causality test. The results indicate a stable long-run relationship between the analysed macroeconomic variables and stock market indices in BiH, while no short-run relationship was found. The results contribute to the scientific discussions about the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and representative stock market indices in BiH which considers their direction and strength. Gospodarska rast in razvoj države se odražata v številnih vidikih, med drugim tudi v borznih indeksih. Namen tega članka je preučiti in določiti povezavo med izbranimi makroekonomskimi spremenljivkami in borznimi indeksi v Bosni in Hercegovini (BiH). Za modeliranje te povezave je bila uporabljena analiza kointegracije s četrtletnimi podatki v obdobju od prvega četrtletja leta 2010 do zadnjega četrtletja leta 2019. Za raziskovanje kratkoročne in dolgoročne povezave je bil uporabljen vektorski model korekcije napak (VECM). Članek je preučil napovedno sposobnost med izbranimi spremenljivkami z uporabo Grangerjevega testa vzročnosti. Rezultati kažejo na stabilno dolgoročno povezavo med analiziranimi makroekonomskimi spremenljivkami in borznimi indeksi v BiH, medtem ko kratkoročne povezave ni bilo mogoče ugotoviti. Rezultati prispevajo k znanstvenim razpravam o povezavi med izbranimi makroekonomskimi spremenljivkami in reprezentativnimi borznimi indeksi v BiH, pri čemer upoštevajo njihovo smer in moč. stock market indices macroeconomic variables BiH VECM model Granger causality test indeksi borznega trga makroekonomske spremenljivke BiH model VECM Grangerjev test vzročnosti true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Znanstveno delo 2025-05-30 12:55:53 2025-05-30 12:55:53 2025-05-31 03:09:16 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2024 0 0 str. 48-70 no. 3 Vol. 70 sep. 2024 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 2024-10-06 330.101.541:336.76(497.6) 237794819 10.2478/ngoe-2024-0016 0547-3101 https://sciendo.com/article/10.2478/ngoe-2024-0016 1 a87fb4a1-3d44-11f0-adaa-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=191549 RAZ_Abdic_Adem_2024.pdf RAZ_Abdic_Adem_2024.pdf 1 5E5D2DD8734B7FEA23A2BF86B43616C5 6cc606a2c8e850a8e004c6379ec7c22afde1109dfaba01a46cb7c09cd4af1747 c358165c-3d44-11f0-adaa-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=191550 Ekonomsko-poslovna fakulteta Naše gospodarstvo 0 0 0