20.500.12556/DKUM-94194 Psihološki dejavniki in gibanje cen na finančnih trgih: analiza s pomočjo kazalnika fear & greed Psychological factors and price movements in financial markets: an analysis using the fear & greed index Magistrska naloga analizira vpliv psiholoških dejavnikov na gibanje cen na finančnih trgih, pri čemer je osrednji analitični okvir indeks strahu in pohlepa (Fear & Greed Index – FGI). Delo združuje teoretične osnove psihologije odločanja z vedenjsko ekonomijo, pri čemer izpostavlja vlogo čustev kot pomembnega, a pogosto spregledanega dejavnika pri investicijskih odločitvah. Teoretični del obravnava povezavo med čustvi in kognicijo, vedenjske anomalije, kot so učinek lastništva, pristranskost statusa quo in strah pred izgubo, ter psihologijo naložbenega procesa. Empirični del temelji na statistični analizi povezave med indeksom strahu in pohlepa ter vrednostmi glavnih ameriških borznih indeksov (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, NYSE Composite) in ceno kriptovalute Bitcoin. Uporabljene so metode deskriptivne statistike, Spearmanove korelacije ter neparametrični testi (Kruskal-Wallis, Dunn-Bonferroni). Rezultati potrjujejo obstoj statistično značilne povezave med indeksom strahu in pohlepa in gibanjem delniških indeksov ter razlike v povprečni ceni Bitcoina med različnimi obdobji razpoloženja na trgu (strah, nevtralnost, pohlep). Naloga ugotavlja, da so razpoloženje vlagateljev in širše čustveno stanje na trgu pomembna napovednika kratkoročnih tržnih gibanj. Ugotovitve prispevajo k boljšemu razumevanju psiholoških vplivov na finančne trge ter predstavljajo podlago za oblikovanje učinkovitejših strategij upravljanja tveganj in naložbenega odločanja. The master's thesis analyzes the impact of psychological factors on price movements in financial markets, with the Fear & Greed Index (FGI) serving as the central analytical framework. The study combines theoretical foundations from decision psychology and behavioral economics, emphasizing the role of emotions as a significant yet often overlooked factor in investment decision-making. The theoretical part explores the connection between emotions and cognition, behavioral anomalies such as the endowment effect, status quo bias, and loss aversion, as well as the psychology of the investment process. The empirical part is based on statistical analysis of the relationship between the Fear & Greed Index and the values of major U.S. stock indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, NYSE Composite) and the price of Bitcoin. Methods employed include descriptive statistics, Spearman’s rank correlation, and non-parametric tests (Kruskal-Wallis, Dunn-Bonferroni). The results confirm a statistically significant relationship between the Fear & Greed Index and stock market movements, as well as differences in the average price of Bitcoin across various market sentiment periods (fear, neutrality, greed). The thesis concludes that investor sentiment and the broader emotional climate of the market are important predictors of short-term market dynamics. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of psychological influences on financial markets and offer a foundation for developing more effective trading strategies and risk management approaches. psihologija vlagateljev indeks strahu in pohlepa vedenjska ekonomija delniški trgi Bitcoin. investor psychology fear and greed index behavioral economics stock markets Bitcoin. true true false D. Brunec] Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Magistrsko delo/naloga 2025-08-07 13:21:35 2025-11-03 09:27:28 2025-11-04 03:34:48 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2025 0 Maribor 0 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 159.923:330 255585539 MAG_Brunec_Dominik_2025.pdf MAG_Brunec_Dominik_2025.pdf 1 E37BFB1F443BB6E44B78539AFD5E1F49 45b089290ee5d8f6a3de3c9bb481e8616900ebb983c9aba2f57eb100dae020c9 9255ee21-9cf5-11f0-8bbe-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=199324 Ekonomsko-poslovna fakulteta 0 0 0