20.500.12556/DKUM-94274 Application of the Altman model for the prediction of financial distress in the case of Slovenian companies Uporaba Altmanovega modela za napoved finančnega neuspeha na primeru slovenskih podjetij Background/Purpose: The aim of this paper is to verify the applicability and accuracy of the Altman model in the case of Slovenian companies. The use of the Altman model is hugely popular and widespread among financiers, analysts and other stakeholders who want to determine the creditworthiness of a company’s operations and the likelihood of it running into financial difficulties in the coming years. Methods: The study was conducted on a sample of 66 Slovenian companies, which were divided into two equal groups: bankruptcy and non-bankruptcy companies. Based on accounting data for the last five years, the authors of this paper calculated the Z-Score, which is based on the Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA). By calculating the statistical error of the estimate (type I and II), the authors verified the extent (in percentage terms) to which the companies had been correctly classified by the model. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to check whether there was a difference in the average Z-Score between the two groups of companies. Results: The authors determined that the reliability of the Altman model was 71.21% when tested at the upper bound (the threshold value of the Z-Score was 2.6) and 80.30% when tested at the lower bound (the threshold value of the Z-Score was 1.1). This is similar to other countries, where the reliability was found to be over 70% in most cases. Despite the lower reliability of the model, the Z-Score proved to be an important factor in differentiating between the two groups of companies, as bankruptcy companies had a lower value of this indicator than non-bankruptcy companies. Conclusion: Based on the results of this study, as well as those of other studies, it can be summarized that the Altman model is a fairly good way for companies to determine the success of their business in a relatively simple and quick way and also to predict the potential risk of their operations in the future. However, since the reliability of the model is not 100%, it is important to be careful when making business predictions and carry out additional in-depth analyses or use other methods. Izhodišče/Namen: Namen članka je verificirati uporabnost in zanesljivost Altmanovega modela na primeru slovenskih podjetij. Uporaba Altmanovega modela je zelo priljubljena in razširjena tako med finančniki, analitiki in ostalimi interesnimi skupinami, ki želijo ugotoviti boniteto poslovanja podjetja in verjetnost, da bi podjetje v prihodnjih letih zašlo v finančne težave. Metode: Raziskavo smo naredili na vzorcu 66-ih slovenskih podjetij, ki smo jih razdelili v dve enako veliki skupini: podjetja v stečaju in uspešna podjetja. Na podlagi računovodskih podatkov za obdobje zadnjih petih let smo izračunali s pomočjo Altmanovega modela izračunali vrednost Z’’, ki temelji na multipli diskriminanti analizi. Z izračunom napake ocene (tipa I in II) smo preverili v kolikšnem % je model pravilno razvrstil podjetja. Z izračunom Mann-Whitney U testa pa smo preverjali ali obstaja razlika v povprečni višini vrednosti Z'' med obema skupinama podjetij. Rezultati: Ugotovili smo, da je zanesljivost Altmanovega modela 71,21 % pri testiranju na zgornjo mejo (mejna vrednost Z'' je 2,6) pri testiranju na spodnjo mejo pa 80,30 % (mejna vrednost Z'' je 1,1)., kar je podobno kot v ostalih državah, kjer se je ta zanesljivost v večini primerov izkazala za več kot 70 %. Kljub slabši zanesljivosti modela, pa se je izkazalo, da je vrednost Z'' pomemben dejavnik pri razlikovanju med obema skupinama podjetji, saj so podjetja v stečaju dosegla nižjo vrednost tega kazalnika kot uspešna podjetja. Zaključek: Na podlagi rezultatov naše raziskave in tudi ostalih raziskav lahko povzamemo, da je je Altmanov model dokaj dober način, da lahko podjetja na razmeroma enostaven in hiter način ugotovijo uspešnost poslovanja podjetja in napovejo tudi morebitno tveganje tega poslovanja v prihodnost. Ker pa njegova zanesljivost ni 100 % moramo biti pri napovedi poslovanja tudi previdni in izvesti še kakšno drugo poglobljeno analizo ali uporabiti kakšno drugo metodo. Altman model business success bankruptcy prediction Slovenian companies Altmanov model uspešnost poslovanja napoved stečaja slovenska podjetja boniteta poslovanja stečaj true true true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Neznano 2025-08-12 12:12:49 2025-08-12 12:12:49 2025-08-13 03:12:48 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2024 0 0 str. 115-126 issue 2 Vol. 57 2024 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 2024-01-01 657.92:334.7(497.4) 195831299 10.2478/orga-2024-0008 1318-5454 https://organizacija.fov.um.si/index.php/organizacija/article/view/1007/1798 1 e71abbc8-7764-11f0-a28d-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=195141 RAZ_Dolinsek_Tatjana_2024.pdf RAZ_Dolinsek_Tatjana_2024.pdf 1 A34693377A84C318CA21AFA25F7296E7 80cb955a85f01d94423794c8e087ea026047b8bafdae9c27bb23f66710242980 123b5390-7765-11f0-a28d-00155d000105 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=195142 Fakulteta za organizacijske vede Organizacija 0 0 0