20.500.12556/DKUM-97216 Supply chain coordination based on the probability optimization of target profit Supply chain management decision-making study mainly based on the expected utility theory and most of the studies are obtaining the average values in the statistical sense. For Supply Chain (SC) decision-making individuals the statistical-based optimal profitability brings decision conflicts in the particular market within a specific period. Moreover, the small and medium outsourcing participants face unexpected outcomes which are the main cause of SCs disruption. This study proposes a contractual coordination model that maximizes the probability of a pre-determined Profit Target (PT). The purpose of this paper is to reduce the influence of demand uncertainty with the high risk of unexpected outcomes. We constructed the Revenue Sharing (RS) and buyback contract models within the SC participants’ PT conditions and then discussed the SC overall performance. We simulated and analyzed the coordination conditions and the decision-making preferences of SC participants under the two contracts. From the comparison, under the PT strategy, the retailer is more willing to adopt the RS contract rather than the buyback contract. But the SC upstream supplier's contract selection decision depends on the specific contract parameters. Finally, numerical results indicated the contract selection decisions with the given PT of both SC participants. supply chain coordination contractual coordination revenue-sharing contract buyback contract profit target optimization probability optimization dobavne verige koordiniranje true false true Fakulteta za strojništvo, Inštitut za proizvodno strojništvo Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik https://apem-journal.org/index.html Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY 4.0). Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation, and DOI. Članek v reviji 2026-02-24 07:03:55 2026-02-24 07:03:55 2026-02-25 03:27:57 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2022 0 0 str. 169-182 no. 2 Vol. 17 Jun. 2022 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 2022-02-14 2022-08-12 2022-08-31 658.5 269306371 10.14743/apem2022.2.428 1854-6250 APEM17-2_169-182.pdf APEM17-2_169-182.pdf 1 4ABD5009AEF299E186DABC9E9B062C72 40db048ed2eabee64a42c3c47a3ac169f13f53e6bd707fe257659154be454554 e5a2f4e2-1146-11f1-a1a6-00155d580e1a https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=203715 Fakulteta za strojništvo Advances in production engineering & management 0 0 0