20.500.12556/DKUM-97854 A time series forecasting methodology for climatic drivers of urban drought in sustainable smart city planning Urban drought is a climate-related challenge that threatens environmental sustainability, public health, and socio-economic stability in urban areas. With increasing climate variability, sustainable smart city planning requires reliable forecasting methodologies to facilitate adaptive water resource management and long-term climate resilience plans. This study proposes and evaluates a time series forecasting methodology for the climatic drivers of urban drought, using standard statistical approaches—Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ((S)ARIMA) and Holt–Winters exponential smoothing. The methodology includes systematic preprocessing of meteorological data, univariate time series modeling, and performance evaluation using recognized accuracy metrics (RMSE, MAE, and MAPE). Air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and wind speed are analyzed as key climatic variables affecting urban drought dynamics. The results indicate that forecast performance varies based on the statistical characteristics of each variable: (S)ARIMA models provide superior predictive accuracy for series with significant seasonality or stochastic fluctuations, whereas the Holt–Winters method is more appropriate for variables displaying sustained downward trends, particularly soil moisture. The forecasts provide a methodological foundation for calculating drought indices and classifying severity, enhancing early warning capabilities and supporting sustainable smart city planning under increasing climate uncertainty. climate adaptatio climatic drivers sustainable smart cities time series modeling urban drought water resource management prilagajanje podnebnim spremembam podnebni gonilniki trajnostno naravnana pametna mesta modeliranje časovnih vrst mestna suša upravljanje vodnih virov true false true MDPI Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/18/8/3945#Results Članek v reviji 2026-04-20 14:05:49 2026-04-20 14:05:50 2026-04-21 03:10:23 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 0 15 str. iss. 8, [article no.] 3945 Vol. 18 April 2026 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 2026-03-03 2026-04-13 2026-04-16 556.5:551.58 275761667 10.3390/su18083945 2071-1050 https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/18/8/3945#Results 1 462a5e8f-3cb1-11f1-ab29-00155d0001a1 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=205467 sustainability-18-03945.pdf sustainability-18-03945.pdf 1 3393128EEECBF575715D38FB46189ACB c50f498c02b3dbadc600c318f0c7e011392f3a932637838e44654041ccaa3c69 1a482d8f-3cb2-11f1-ab29-00155d0001a1 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=205468 Fakulteta za strojništvo 0 0 0