20.500.12556/DKUM-98238 Perceived ideological polarization, trust in science and healthcare, and covid-19 vaccination intention a four-wave cross-lagged mediation panel analysis Ideological polarization is often theorized to erode trust in science and healthcare, thereby reducing compliance with health guidelines and vaccine uptake. In this study, we examined the longitudinal relationships between perceived ideological polarization, trust in science and healthcare, and COVID-19 vaccination intention, using a four-wave panel design. We analysed four waves of panel data from a sample of 488 Slovenians, representative by gender, age, and education. Pearson correlations and a random intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM) were used to assess both within- and between-person associations, and to test whether trust in science and healthcare mediated the relationship between perceived ideological polarization and vaccination intention over time. Baseline correlations showed a positive association between perceived ideological polarization, trust, and vaccination intention, though these associations weakened and became nonsignificant in later waves. RI-CLPM results revealed no evidence of causal, within-person effects of perceived ideological polarization on later trust or vaccination intention, and no longitudinal mediation pathways. However, between-person effects indicated that individuals with consistently higher trust in science and healthcare reported higher vaccination intentions across time. These findings challenge the assumption that ideological polarization undermines trust and vaccination intention, suggesting that cross-sectional associations observed in prior research may reflect stable between-person differences rather than dynamic causal processes. By distinguishing cross-sectional from longitudinal evidence, this study underscores institutional trust as the key predictor of vaccination intention and calls for comparative research across political and cultural contexts. polarization trust in science trust in healthcare vaccination intention RI_CLPM Slovenia polarizacija zaupanje v znanost zaupanje v zdravstvo namera za cepljenje RI-CLPM Slovenija true false true Elsevier Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Znanstveno delo 2026-05-29 03:17:28 2026-06-04 11:20:26 2026-06-05 03:10:29 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 Oxford 0 str. 1-8 št. članka 119057 Letn. 394 2026 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 2026-01-30 2026-02-09 316.334:616-084 267450627 10.1016/j.socscimed.2026.119057 1873-5347 RAZ_Kirbis_Andrej_2026.pdf RAZ_Kirbis_Andrej_2026.pdf 1 B1319D8C61CB7767FA2AB934C4851746 968c816f988f0b897d49b3660d5d224a3a3841abfe35e19927149e16a6bc3a1b 8968e2d4-5ff6-11f1-86e5-00155d580e34 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=206731 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953626001322?via%3Dihub 1 28b54a32-5afc-11f1-ad61-00155d580e34 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=206535 Filozofska fakulteta 0 0 0