20.500.12556/DKUM-98848 Passenger transportation emission: trends and projections till 2050 The environmental aspect of transportation mode choice has become an increasingly significant factor in individual's behaviour. By utilizing historical and current emissions data, it is possible to project future emission trends, which can be used for transport policies at both micro and macro levels. Emission factors are commonly used in studies addressing greenhouse gas emissions and decarbonization strategies. The research aimed to explore the projected trends in emissions from various transportation modes up to 2050. Based on the slope of the trendline of the scatter plot, we were able to determine whether the trend indicates an increase or decrease in emissions for each transportation mode. In first scenario, analysis of emissions data from the years 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, indicates that emissions will rise across all transportation modes, except for trains, which are projected to achieve zero-emission operation after 2040. Among the other transportation modes, emissions from ships are expected to increase the fastest, followed by cars, airplanes, and motorcycles, with buses exhibiting the slowest growth. The results of the applied method deviate from the expected emission trend, presented in the second scenario, which predicted a decrease in emissions. This raises the question of the challenges in predicting future emission trends and highlights the need to develop mathematical models that account for both the current state and the uncertainty of future developments in decision-making. transportation mode choice modelling GHG emissions emissions per passenger-kilometre forecast vrsta prevoza modeliranje izbire emisije toplogrednih plinov emisije na potniški kilometer napovedovanje true false false Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Članek v reviji 2026-07-13 14:31:37 2026-07-13 14:31:37 2026-07-14 11:58:13 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 0 str. 417-426 Vol. 15 Aug. 2026 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 2026-01-01 656:504 284570371 284578563 10.21622/MARLOG.2026.15.1.86 2974-3141 RAZ_Fale_Martin_2026.pdf RAZ_Fale_Martin_2026.pdf 1 5528A3AE8E23D1E0CE9B947FF7153040 804fa698af1cbc9fe0480bee3e669c6016a539e6636a7aa6348410bc994f8505 f1992a0e-7eb6-11f1-a5fa-00155d580e34 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=208202 https://dx.doi.org/10.21622/MARLOG.2026.15.1.86 0 cd549257-7eb6-11f1-a5fa-00155d580e34 https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=208201 Fakulteta za logistiko 0 0 0