20.500.12556/DKUM-99810 Javnofinančni dejavniki donosnosti državnih obveznic Fiscal determinants of government bond yields Državne obveznice so pomemben instrument tržnega financiranja države, njihove zahtevane donosnosti pa so pomemben pokazatelj pogojev oziroma stroškov državnega zadolževanja in zaznanega kreditnega tveganja države. Gibanje donosnosti državnih obveznic je poleg javnega dolga in proračunskega salda povezano tudi z gospodarsko rastjo, inflacijo, naravnanostjo monetarne politike, negotovostjo na finančnih trgih in kakovostjo institucij. V diplomskem delu analiziramo gibanje donosnosti desetletnih državnih obveznic Grčije, Italije in Madžarske ter njihovih razmikov glede na donosnost primerljivih nemških državnih obveznic v obdobju od prvega četrtletja 2000 do drugega četrtletja 2025. V obdobjih velike recesije, evropske dolžniške krize in pandemije covid‑19 so se razmere na trgih državnih obveznic izrazito spreminjale, pri čemer je bila dinamika razmikov v donosnosti državnih obveznic najizrazitejša v Grčiji. Analiza obravnavanega obdobja kaže, da se občutljivost obvezniških trgov na javnofinančna neravnotežja med obravnavanimi državami razlikuje, zlasti pa lahko pridejo te razlike do izraza v obdobjih povečane gospodarske in finančne negotovosti. Empirični rezultati kažejo na izrazito vztrajnost razmikov v donosnosti obveznic v vseh treh državah, medtem ko se vzorci njihove statistične povezanosti z javnofinančnimi in makroekonomskimi dejavniki ter globalno negotovostjo med državami razlikujejo. Rezultati tako implicirajo, da so razmiki v donosnosti državnih obveznic povezani ne le s posameznimi javnofinančnimi kazalniki, temveč tudi s širšimi makroekonomskimi razmerami in specifičnostmi posamezne države. Government bonds are an important instrument of market-based government financing, while their required yields are an important indicator of government borrowing conditions and costs, as well as perceived sovereign credit risk. In addition to public debt and the fiscal balance, movements in government bond yields are also associated with economic growth, inflation, the stance of monetary policy, financial market uncertainty and institutional quality. This thesis analyses movements in the yields on ten-year government bonds issued by Greece, Italy and Hungary, as well as their spreads over the yields on comparable German government bonds, from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2025. During the Great Recession, the European sovereign debt crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, conditions in sovereign bond markets changed considerably, with the dynamics of government bond yield spreads being most pronounced in Greece. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of bond markets to fiscal imbalances differs across the countries examined and that these differences may become particularly pronounced during periods of heightened economic and financial uncertainty. The empirical results indicate strong persistence in government bond yield spreads in all three countries, while the patterns of their statistical relationships with fiscal and macroeconomic factors and global uncertainty differ across countries. The results therefore imply that government bond yield spreads are associated not only with individual fiscal indicators but also with broader macroeconomic conditions and country‑specific characteristics. državne obveznice razmiki v donosnosti javni dolg proračunski saldo government bonds yield spreads public debt fiscal balance true true false G. Detiček] Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Diplomsko delo/naloga 2026-08-27 01:27:00 2026-09-22 12:11:44 2026-09-23 03:08:36 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 Maribor 0 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 336.763:336.27 291993603 UN_Deticek_Gal_2026.pdf UN_Deticek_Gal_2026.pdf 1 E591EB70E58A34BA9658E9B21AD42AB4 3bca63844ffa18cd48f7f82b38d2a2fed0e0e31dfa831f48a1a7540830f7a892 8f4d84de-a868-11f1-b9ca-00155d0001be https://dk.um.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=211596 Ekonomsko-poslovna fakulteta 0 0 0