| Naslov: | Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes |
|---|
| Avtorji: | ID Krüger, Tyll (Avtor)
ID Gogolewski, Krzysztof (Avtor)
ID Bodych, Marcin (Avtor)
ID Gambin, Anna (Avtor)
ID Giordano, Giulia (Avtor)
ID Cuschieri, Sarah (Avtor)
ID Czypionka, Thomas (Avtor)
ID Perc, Matjaž (Avtor)
ID Petelos, Elena (Avtor)
ID Rosińska, Magdalena (Avtor)
ID Szczurek, Ewa (Avtor) |
|---|
| Datoteke: |  Krueger-2022-Risk_assessment_of_COVID-19_epide.pdf (2,06 MB)
MD5: C0EF059EE247242D5196C18CEDE97D18
 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00084-w
|
|---|
| Jezik: | Angleški jezik |
|---|
| Vrsta gradiva: | Znanstveno delo |
|---|
| Tipologija: | 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek |
|---|
| Organizacija: | FNM - Fakulteta za naravoslovje in matematiko
|
|---|
| Opis: | The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant. Some predicted epidemic scenarios for realistic parameter values yield new COVID-19 infection waves within two years, and high daily case numbers in the endemic state, even without introducing VPs and granting more freedom to their holders. Still, suitable adaptive policies can avoid unfavorable outcomes. While VP holders could initially be allowed more freedom, the lack of full vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility will require accelerated (re-)vaccination, wide-spread immunity surveillance, and/or minimal long-term common restrictions. |
|---|
| Ključne besede: | SIRS model, vaccination pass, stability analysis |
|---|
| Geografsko pokritje: | Evropa; |
|---|
| Status publikacije: | Objavljeno |
|---|
| Verzija publikacije: | Objavljena publikacija |
|---|
| Poslano v recenzijo: | 17.08.2021 |
|---|
| Datum sprejetja članka: | 03.02.2022 |
|---|
| Datum objave: | 03.03.2022 |
|---|
| Založnik: | Nature Portfolio |
|---|
| Leto izida: | 2022 |
|---|
| Št. strani: | Str. 1-14 |
|---|
| Številčenje: | Letn. 2, Št. članka 23 |
|---|
| PID: | 20.500.12556/DKUM-88630  |
|---|
| UDK: | 616-036.21 |
|---|
| COBISS.SI-ID: | 100312835 |
|---|
| DOI: | 10.1038/s43856-022-00084-w |
|---|
| ISSN pri članku: | 2730-664X |
|---|
| Datum objave v DKUM: | 15.07.2024 |
|---|
| Število ogledov: | 283 |
|---|
| Število prenosov: | 22 |
|---|
| Metapodatki: |    |
|---|
| Področja: | Ostalo
|
|---|
|
:
|
Kopiraj citat |
|---|
| | | | Skupna ocena: | (0 glasov) |
|---|
| Vaša ocena: | Ocenjevanje je dovoljeno samo prijavljenim uporabnikom. |
|---|
| Objavi na: |  |
|---|
Postavite miškin kazalec na naslov za izpis povzetka. Klik na naslov izpiše
podrobnosti ali sproži prenos. |
