Analiza stroškov in koristi v investicijo pridelave HTC oglja

Meško, Simon

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Title:	Analiza stroškov in koristi v investicijo pridelave HTC oglja
Authors:	ID Meško, Simon (Author) ID Pažek, Karmen (Mentor) More about this mentor...
Files:	MAG_Mesko_Simon_2012.pdf (1,16 MB) MD5: 041656A0B216C4E09BED9A83060CC7EA PID: 20.500.12556/dkum/cefe2559-1ad8-41ec-b44b-f87efa329329
Language:	Slovenian
Work type:	Master's thesis
Organization:	FKBV - Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences
Abstract:	Glavni cilj magistrskega dela je ugotoviti, ali je investicija v predelavo HTC oglja finančno upravičena. Osrednja metoda, ki je uporabljena v raziskavi, je t.i. Cost – Benefit analiza. Parametri, ki so se ocenjevali, so neto sedanja vrednost (NSV), interna stopnja donosnosti (ISD), relativna neto sedanja vrednost in obdobje povračila investicije. Modelna ocena parametrov finančne smotrnosti investicije ob predpostavki investicijskega cikla 35 let, 11 % obrestni meri in konstantnem letnem denarnem toku (1.159.969€) kaže, da je investicija finančno upravičena. Ocena neto sedanje vrednosti je pozitivna vrednost (1.071.804 €). Interna stopnja donosnosti znaša 12,40 % in presega vrednosti diskontne stopnje. Obdobje povračila investicije je 20 let. Nadalje je bila v sklopu CBA analize izdelana tudi analiza občutljivosti in ocena varnosti investicije. Analiza občutljivosti se je izvedla z ocenami NSV, ISD, RNSV in obdobjem vračanja investicije pri različnih možnih scenarijih. Scenariji so predvidevali odklone (+/– 5 %, 10 %, 20 %) od vrednosti spremenljivke, ki je bila uporabljena pri presoji projekta. Rezultati analize scenarijev kažejo, da je projekt najbolj občutljiv na spremembo prodajne cene HTC oglja in ceno vhodne surovine. Za oceno, ali je investicija v projekt varna, smo pri analizi občutljivosti upoštevali povečanje investicijskih stroškov za 10 % in hkrati zmanjšanje pričakovanih učinkov za 10 %. Neto sedanja vrednost investicije pri oceni varnosti naložbe ima negativni predznak (–4.301.801 €). Nadalje rezultati raziskave kažejo tudi, da brez analize tveganj investicija v pridelavo HTC oglja ni varna oziroma je preveč tvegana naložba.
Keywords:	CBA, NSV, ISD, HTC oglje, analiza občutljivosti
Place of publishing:	Maribor
Year of publishing:	2012
PID:	20.500.12556/DKUM-39127
NUK URN:	URN:SI:UM:DK:1JCW9RKH
Publication date in DKUM:	02.01.2013
Views:	3237
Downloads:	552
Metadata:
Categories:	FKBV
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Secondary language

Language:	English
Title:	Cost-benefit analysis of investmen in HTC charcoal production
Abstract:	The main objective of the master thesis is to determine whether investing in processing HTC charcoal is financially justified. The main method used in the study is called Cost – Benefit Analysis. The parameters that were evaluated are the net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), relative net present value and return on investment period. Model assessment of financial performance parameters of the investment assuming an investment cycle of 35 years, 11% interest rate and a constant annual cash flow ( 1.159,969 €) shows that the investment is financially justified. Estimate of the net present value is positive value (1.071,804 €). Internal rate of return is 12,40% and exceeds the value of the discount rate. Return on investment period is 20 years. Furthermore, in the context of CBA analysis, a sensitivity analysis and assessment of investment safety was produced. Sensitivity analysis was carried out with estimates of NPV, IRR, RNSV and the return of investment period in different possible scenarios. Scenarios predicted deviations (+ / – 5%, 10%, 20%) of the value of the variable that was used in the assessment of the project. The results of scenario analysis show that the project is most sensitive to changes of selling prices of the HTC charcoal and price of inputs. To evaluate whether the investment in the project is safe, in the sensitivity analysis, we considered an increase in investment costs by 10% while reducing the expected effects by 10%. Net present value of an investment in the assessment of investment safety has a negative sign (–4.301,801 €). Furthermore, the research results also show that without risk analysis investing in HTC charcoal production is not safe or is too risky an investment.
Keywords:	CBA, NPV, IRR, HTC charcoal, sensitivity analysis

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