PROCES UVEDBE SKUPNE EVROPSKE VALUTE V REPUBLIKI MAKEDONIJI

Naumovski, Nikola

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Title:	PROCES UVEDBE SKUPNE EVROPSKE VALUTE V REPUBLIKI MAKEDONIJI
Authors:	ID Naumovski, Nikola (Author) ID Bekő, Jani (Mentor) More about this mentor...
Files:	UN_Naumovski_Nikola_2016.pdf (1,22 MB) MD5: EFB28E729066AFB1F888EABC3A11C0A4
Language:	Slovenian
Work type:	Final seminar paper
Typology:	2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization:	EPF - Faculty of Business and Economics
Abstract:	Proces uvedbe skupne evropske valute oziroma vstop v Evropsko ekonomsko in monetarno unijo (EMU) predstavlja za posamezno državo pomembno stopnjo v procesu gospodarske konvergence z Evropsko unijo (EU). Pred vstopom v EMU mora država izpolniti določena družbeno-gospodarska merila, ki ji omogočajo opustiti svojo neodvisno denarno politiko kot sredstvo ohranjanja gospodarske stabilnosti oziroma zunanjega in notranjega ravnovesja. Zmožnost države, da ohranja gospodarsko stabilnost brez potrebe po neodvisni denarni politiki, se lahko vrednoti s pomočjo normativnih in teoretičnih meril, ki so predstavljena v ekonomski literaturi. Normativna merila, ki jih zajemajo maastrichtski konvergenčni kriteriji, predstavljajo nujni pogoj za sprejetje skupne evropske valute; če jih država pristopnica ne izpolni, ne sme vstopiti v EMU. Po drugi strani pa teoretična merila, ki jih zajema teorija optimalnega valutnega območja, sicer ne zahtevajo formalne izpolnitve, a še posebej dobro dopolnjujejo pričujočo analizo, saj širijo razumevanja obravnavanega problema. V pričujočem diplomskem delu smo na podlagi nizov kriterijev ovrednotili pripravljenost, da bo Republika Makedonija za vstop v EMU, pri čemer moramo opozoriti, da analiza temelji na predpostavki, da bo Republika Makedonija sčasoma postala članica Evropske unije – v letu 2016 je namreč še vedno država kandidatka. Analiza stopnje nominalne konvergence – po merilih stabilnosti cen in deviznega tečaja, nizke stopnje dolgoročnih obrestnih mer in fiskalne discipline – sicer kaže, da Republika Makedonija uspešno izpolnjuje številne maastrichtske konvergenčne kriterije, vendar pomembni izzivi ostajajo. Rast produktivnosti v izvoznem sektorju ob hitrejši rasti nemenjalnih cen lahko namreš prispeva k povečanju inflacijskih pritiskov. Prav tako lahko nadaljnja liberalizacija kapitalskega trga zmanjša že tako nizko raven monetarne avtonomije države in posledično vodi do višje variabilnosti deviznega tečaja. Vendar bo v tem primeru višja stopnja integracije kapitalskega trga vodila v znižanje dolgoročnih obrestnih mer, ki so trenutno občutno višje od tistih v EU. In nenazadnje, čeprav je bil javni dolg ohranjen na zmerni ravni, lahko nedavno povečanje proračunske porabe ogrozi dolgoročno vzdržnost javnega dolga Republike Makedonije. Po analizi realne konvergence sodeč je Republika Makedonija v zgodnjih fazah, saj je njen bruto domači proizvod na prebivalca trikrat nižji v primerjavi z Evropsko unijo. V nadaljnji analizi smo preverili naslednja merila teorije optimalnega valutnega območja: i) stopnja trgovinske povezanosti (velikost in odprtost gospodarstva, diverzifikacija izvoza in uvoza), ii) stopnja simetričnosti poslovnih ciklov (korelacija BDP) med Evropsko unijo in Republiko Makedonijo, in iii) nemonetarni mehanizmi prilagajanja (plačna in cenovna fleksibilnost, mobilnost delovne sile in kapitala). Izidi analize kažejo, da so med gospodarstvi Republike Makedonije in Evropske unije še vedno izrazite razlike, zaradi katerih ne tvorita optimalnega valutnega območja, čeprav je raven trgovinske povezanosti med njima visoka. Predvsem gre izpostaviti izrazito razliko v sogibanju BDP obeh gospodarskih enot, kar nakazuje, da utegnejo imeti gospodarski šoki asimetrično naravo. Do enakih zaključkov pridemo tudi, če upoštevamo strukturo BDP. Nemonetarni mehanizmi prilagajanja so zato toliko bolj potrebni za ohranitev notranjega in zunanjega ravnotežja v makedonskem gospodarstvu. A naš pregled kaže, da so nedovolj operativni. Podroben pogled namreč odkriva togost cen in plač ter nizko stopnjo mobilnosti z izjemo zunanje mobilnosti delovne sile, ki je služila kot temeljni nemonetarni mehanizem prilagajanja. Skratna, Republika Makedonija se mora soočiti s pomembnimi izzivi in sprejeti ustrezne ukrepe, da bo izpolnila tako maastrichtske kriterije kot merila optimalnega valutnega območja ter tako zagotovila uspešno uvedbo skupne evropske valute.
Keywords:	Republika Makedonija, vstop v Evropsko unijo, monetarna integracija, maastrichtski konvergenčni kriteriji, optimalno valutno območje, Evropska ekonomska in monetarna unija, režimi deviznih tečajev, uvedba skupne evropske valute.
Place of publishing:	Maribor
Publisher:	[N. Naumovski]
Year of publishing:	2016
PID:	20.500.12556/DKUM-58660
UDC:	336.74
COBISS.SI-ID:	12303644
NUK URN:	URN:SI:UM:DK:KPCAJPQO
Publication date in DKUM:	03.06.2016
Views:	1591
Downloads:	151
Metadata:
Categories:	EPF
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Secondary language

Language:	English
Title:	THE PROCESS OF IMPLEMENTING THE COMMON EUROPEAN CURRENCY IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Abstract:	The process of adopting the common European currency, i.e. accession to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is an important stage in the process of economic convergence with the European Union (EU). A candidate country must meet specific socio-economic criteria prior to EMU accession in order to give up its independent monetary policy as a tool for maintaining economic stability, i.e. external and internal balances. Proof of the capability of a country to maintain economic stability without the need for independent monetary conduct can be evaluated through the normative and theoretical criteria presented in economic literature. Meeting the normative criteria covered by the Maastricht convergence criteria is a necessary condition for adopting the common European currency. On the other hand, the theoretical criteria of the optimum currency area (OCA) do not require formal compliance. Applying these OCA criteria in the current analysis, however, is especially helpful in broadening the scope of our understanding. In this thesis we evaluate the readiness of the Republic of Macedonia for EMU accession on the basis of both these sets of criteria. Please note that the analysis is based on the assumption that the Republic of Macedonia will eventually become an EU member state, though as of 2016 the Republic of Macedonia still remains a candidate country. An analysis that considers only the extent of the country’s nominal convergence according to the criteria of price level stability, exchange-rate stability, low long-term interest rates and fiscal discipline, suggests that the Republic of Macedonia successfully meets several of the Maastricht convergence criteria. However, important challenges remain. First, productivity growth in the export sector combined with the faster growth of nontradable prices may contribute to increased inflationary pressures. Additionally, further capital market liberalization may diminish the country’s already low level of monetary autonomy and lead to higher exchange-rate variability. However, a higher degree of capital market integration could lead to the reduction of long-term interest rates in Macedonia, which have been significantly higher than those of the EU. Finally, although government debt has been maintained at a moderate level, increased fiscal spending in the recent period could undermine the long-term sustainability of the debt. The analysis of real convergence given here shows that the Republic of Macedonia is in the early stages of convergence, with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita three times lower than that of the EU. For the purposes of analysing the country’s convergence with the OCA theory, we tested the following three OCA criteria: i) the degree of trade integration (size and openness of the economy; diversification of exports and imports); ii) the degree of symmetry of business cycles (GDP correlation) between the EU and the Republic of Macedonia; and iii) the country’s non-monetary adjustment mechanisms (wage and price flexibility; mobility of labour and capital). The results of this analysis suggest that dissimilarities between the Macedonian and the EU economies are still persistent and thus do not constitute an optimum currency area, even though the level of trade integration is notably high. There is a significant difference in the magnitude of GDP co-movements, implying that economic shocks may have asymmetrical effects on the Macedonian and EU economy. Moreover, the same conclusions can be drawn if we take into account the GDP structure, meaning that non-monetary adjustment mechanisms are needed to preserve internal and external balances. However, such non-monetary adjustment mechanisms are insufficient to In sum, there are important challenges that must be considered and actions that need to be taken in order for the Republic of Macedonia to meet both the Maastricht and OCA criteria and consequently ensure successful implementation of the common European currency.
Keywords:	Republic of Macedonia, European Union accession, monetary integration, Maastricht convergence criteria, optimum currency area, Economic and Monetary Union, exchange-rate regimes, adoption of the common European currency.

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