NAČRTOVANJE ZALOG S POMOČJO ČASOVNIH VRST V FARMACEVTSKEM PODJETJU

Gleščič Kragelj, Lucija

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Title:	NAČRTOVANJE ZALOG S POMOČJO ČASOVNIH VRST V FARMACEVTSKEM PODJETJU
Authors:	ID Gleščič Kragelj, Lucija (Author) ID Kofjač, Davorin (Mentor) More about this mentor...
Files:	VS_Glescic_Kragelj_Lucija_2016.pdf (651,22 KB) MD5: 3C03DA0BD6CBFADF8059F4A51A7D24BA
Language:	Slovenian
Work type:	Bachelor thesis/paper
Organization:	FOV - Faculty of Organizational Sciences in Kranj
Abstract:	Diplomska naloga zajema področje predvidevanja in napovedovanja zalog v oskrbovalni verigi podjetja. Podatki, s katerimi smo operirali, so vzeti iz realnega okolja podjetja Gopharm d. o. o. Prevelika zaloga zdravil povzroča nepotrebne stroške podjetju in posledično tudi vezanje denarja vanje. Ravno zato smo želeli optimizirati proces vodenja zalog. Teoretični del naloge zajema analizo časovnih vrst, ekstrapolacijske in korelacijskih metode napovedovanja s fiksnim vzorcem in XYZ analizno metodo za obdelavo podatkov. V praktičnem delu naloge smo na realnih podatkih podjetja preizkusili različne metode napovedovanja, ekstrapolacijske in korelacijske metode časovnih vrst ter računali najmanjšo napako odstopanja. Rezultate metode napovedovanja z najmanjšo napako odstopanja smo primerjali še z razredi XYZ metode in prišli do ugotovitve o povezanosti. Glede na rezultate vzorca desetih zdravil in trenutnega stanja na trgu, bi bilo smiselno za napovedovanje uporabljati kratkoročne ekstrapolacijske metode.
Keywords:	vodenje zalog, časovne vrste, napovedovanje potreb, ARIMA, korelacijske metode, ekstrapolacijske metode, XYZ analiza
Place of publishing:	Kranj
Year of publishing:	2016
PID:	20.500.12556/DKUM-59180
COBISS.SI-ID:	7615251
NUK URN:	URN:SI:UM:DK:OVQIU5KV
Publication date in DKUM:	22.06.2016
Views:	1998
Downloads:	173
Metadata:
Categories:	FOV
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Secondary language

Language:	English
Title:	INVENTORY PLANNING IN PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANY USING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
Abstract:	The thesis covers the area of prediction and the area of forecasting the stock in the supply chain companies. The data which we operated with, are taken from the environment of the company Gopharm l.l.c. The stockpiles of medicine cause unnecessary costs and binding money, therefore wewanted to optimize the process of managing the stock. In the theoretical part of the thesis I analyzed the time series on one hand and extrapolation and correlation methods of forecasting with a fixed pattern and XYZ methods, which were used to process the data, on the other hand. In the practical part of the thesis we tried different methods of forecasting, extrapolation and correlation methods of time series and we also calculated the minimum error of tolerance. The results of the forecasting methods with the minimum error tolerance were compared with classes XYZ methods. We came to a conclusion about their correlation. According to the results of a sample of ten medicines and the current market situation, it would be resonable to use short-term extrapolation methods for forecasting.
Keywords:	inventory management, time series, demand forecastin, ARIMA, extrapolation methods, correlation methods, XYZ analysis

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