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Title:Ovrednotenje modelov verjetnostne porazdelitve napake napovedi proizvodnje vetrnih elektrarn
Authors:ID Polajžer, Boštjan (Author)
ID Srpak, Dunja (Author)
Files:.pdf Polajzer_Srpak.pdf (907,97 KB)
MD5: 7E513AC660435A7DE7C0FB21507E02CE
PID: 20.500.12556/dkum/977b665e-50e6-4e64-ad0d-d1dab04906dc
 
Language:Slovenian
Work type:Not categorized
Typology:1.08 - Published Scientific Conference Contribution
Organization:FERI - Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Abstract:V članku so obravnavani različni modeli verjetnostne porazdelitve napake proizvodnje vetrnih elektrarn. Poleg modelov, znanih iz literature (beta, Weibull, gamma), so obravnavani modeli z razširjeno nesimetrično posplošeno normalno porazdelitvijo. Obravnavan je tudi model s t.i. verzatilno verjetnostno porazdelitvijo, ki je občutljiv na valovitost empirične porazdelitve, vendar omogoča analitičen izračun percentilne funkcije. Dobljeni rezultati kažejo, da modeli z beta, Weibull in gamma verjetnostno porazdelitvijo ne dajejo dobrih rezultatov, bistveno bolj ustrezni so modeli z nesimetrično posplošeno normalno verjetnostno porazdelitvijo.
Keywords:model verjetnostne porazdelitve, verjetnostna analiza, porazdelitev napake, proizvodnja električne energije, vetrne elektrarne
Publication status:Published
Number of pages:Str. [53]-59
PID:20.500.12556/DKUM-68685 New window
UDC:621.311
COBISS.SI-ID:20724758 New window
NUK URN:URN:SI:UM:DK:89AMZG1G
Publication date in DKUM:10.10.2017
Views:1595
Downloads:110
Metadata:XML DC-XML DC-RDF
Categories:Misc.
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Record is a part of a monograph

Title:26. mednarodno posvetovanje »Komunalna energetika 2017« : (9. do 11. maj 2017, Maribor, Slovenija)
Editors:Jože Pihler
Place of publishing:Maribor
Publisher:Univerzitetna založba Univerze v Mariboru
Year of publishing:2017
ISBN:978-961-286-071-4 (PDF)
COBISS.SI-ID:92729089 New window
Conference organizer:Univerza v Mariboru, Univerza v Ljubljani, Energetska agencija za Podravje

Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Evaluation of probability-distribution models for wind-power forecast error
Abstract:This paper discusses different probability-distribution models for wind-power forecast error. Models known from the literature (beta, Weibull, gamma) are discussed along with the models with extendedskew generalized-normal distribution. Furthermore, a versatile model is discussed, which enables analytical calculation of the percentile function; however, it is sensitive to wavelets in the probability distribution. Obtained results show that beta, Weibull and gamma probability distributions do not capture the actual (empirical) one; far more adequate are models with skew generalized-normal probability distribution.
Keywords:probability-distribution models, error distribution, generation, wind power


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