Vpliv sistemskega finančnega stresa v evrskem območju na dvostranski izvoz blaga

Romih, Dejan

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Title:	Vpliv sistemskega finančnega stresa v evrskem območju na dvostranski izvoz blaga
Authors:	ID Romih, Dejan (Author) ID Dajčman, Silvo (Mentor) More about this mentor... ID Kavkler, Alenka (Comentor)
Files:	DOK_Romih_Dejan_2023.pdf (13,74 MB) MD5: E62B332C74CF7D67C86AE4AEA4B5FBD4
Language:	Slovenian
Work type:	Doctoral dissertation
Typology:	2.08 - Doctoral Dissertation
Organization:	EPF - Faculty of Business and Economics
Abstract:	Pregled literature kaže, da sistemski finančni stres v evrskem območju in njegove posledice še niso popolnoma raziskani. Dosedanje raziskave kažejo, da sistemski finančni stres v evrskem območju negativno vpliva na ekonomsko aktivnost. V tej doktorski disertaciji raziskujemo, ali in kako sistemski finančni stres v evrskem območju vpliva na dvostranski izvoz blaga, pri čemer uporabljamo statične panelne gravitacijske modele mednarodne trgovine z blagom, katerih parametre ocenjujemo po metodah OLS, GPML in PPML, ki jih priporočajo strokovnjaki s področja ekonometrije. Sistemski finančni stres v evrskem območju merimo s »starim« in »novim« CISS-om za evrsko območje ter VSTOXX-om, ki jih uporabljajo tudi drugi raziskovalci na področju ekonomije. Pri raziskovanju uporabljamo nominalne in realne podatke za Avstralijo, Avstrijo, Belgijo, Brazilijo, Ciper, Češko, Dansko, Estonijo, Finsko, Francijo, Grčijo, Hongkong, Indijo, Irsko, Islandijo, Italijo, Izrael, Japonsko, Južno Afriko, Južno Korejo, Kanado, Kitajsko, Latvijo, Litvo, Luksemburg, Malto, Mehiko, Nemčijo, Nizozemsko, Norveško, Novo Zelandijo, Portugalsko, Rusijo, Slovaško, Slovenijo, Španijo, Švedsko, Švico, ZDA in Združeno kraljestvo od leta 2000 do 2014. Na osnovi pregleda literature s področja raziskovanja smo se odločili, da bomo upoštevali rezultate, ki temeljijo na nominalnih podatkih, kot priporočajo strokovnjaki s področja mednarodne ekonomije. Ti rezultati kažejo, da sistemski finančni stres v evrskem območju negativno vpliva na dvostranski izvoz blaga, kar je v skladu z našimi pričakovanji. To velja tudi, če iz vzorca izključimo tretje države. Finančna kriza leta 2008 je pokazala, da motnje v delovanju finančnega sistema negativno vplivajo na dvostransko trgovanje z blagom in njegovo financiranje, kar je povzročilo med ekonomisti in oblikovalci ekonomske politike potrebo po opazovanju in spremljanju sistemskega finančnega stresa. S to doktorsko disertacijo zapolnjujemo vrzel v literaturi o sistemskem finančnem stresu v evrskem območju in njegovih posledicah, kar bo olajšalo sprejemanje ekonomskih in ekonomskopolitičnih ukrepov za blaženje posledic sistemskega finančnega stresa v evrskem območju. Rezultati raziskovanja kažejo, da je sistemski finančni stres v evrskem območju dejavnik dvostranske trgovine z blagom, kar bo prispevalo k nadaljnjemu razvoju mednarodne ekonomije.
Keywords:	evrsko območje, gravitacijski model mednarodne trgovine, sistemski finančni stres
Place of publishing:	Maribor
Publisher:	D. Romih
Year of publishing:	2023
PID:	20.500.12556/DKUM-82949
UDC:	339.7(043.3)
COBISS.SI-ID:	152384259
Publication date in DKUM:	17.05.2023
Views:	855
Downloads:	211
Metadata:
Categories:	EPF
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Licences

License:	CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Link:	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Description:	The most restrictive Creative Commons license. This only allows people to download and share the work for no commercial gain and for no other purposes.
Licensing start date:	11.09.2022

Secondary language

Language:	English
Title:	The impact of systemic financial stress in the euro area on bilateral exports of goods
Abstract:	A literature review shows that systemic financial stress in the euro area and its consequences has not yet been fully studied. Previous research shows that systemic financial stress in the euro area has a negative impact on economic activity. In this dissertation, we investigate whether and how systemic financial stress in the euro area affects bilateral exports of goods. To do so, we use static panel data gravity models of international trade in goods whose parameters are estimated using OLS, GPML and PPML methods recommended by experts in the field of econometrics. Systemic financial stress in the euro area is measured with the old and new CISS for the euro area and the VSTOXX, which are also used by other researchers in the field of economics. In our study, we use nominal and real data for Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Iceland, Italy, Israel, Japan, South Africa, South Korea, Canada, China, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, New Zealand, Portugal, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the US and the United Kingdom from 2000 to 2014. Following a literature review, we have chosen to include results based on nominal data, as recommended by experts in the field of international economics. These results show that systemic financial stress in the euro area has a negative impact on bilateral exports of goods, which is in line with our expectations. This is true even if third countries are excluded from the sample. The 2008 financial crisis has shown that disruptions in the functioning of the financial system have a negative impact on bilateral trade in goods and its financing, which has prompted economists and economic policymakers to monitor systemic financial stress. With this dissertation, we fill a gap in the literature on systemic financial stress in the euro area and its consequences, which will facilitate the adoption of economic policy measures to mitigate the consequences of systemic financial stress in the euro area. The research findings show that systemic financial stress in the euro area is a factor in bilateral trade in goods which will contribute to the further development of international economics.
Keywords:	euro area, gravity model of international trade, systemic financial stress

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