| Title: | Analysis by team – a tool for mitigating mistakes in intelligence analysis |
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| Authors: | ID Britovšek, Jaroš (Author) |
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| Files: |  https://www.fvv.um.si/rv/arhiv/2023/2023-09-Britovsek.html
https://www.fvv.um.si/rv/arhiv/2023/2023-09-Britovsek.pdf
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| Language: | English |
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| Work type: | Article |
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| Typology: | 1.02 - Review Article |
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| Organization: | FVV - Faculty of Criminal Justice and Security
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| Abstract: | Purpose:
In this paper, we will examine various causes of error in intelligence analysis
and then propose a solution to combat or mitigate them.
Design/Methods/Approach:
We reviewed the literature of relevant primary and secondary sources on
mistakes in intelligence analysis and efforts to mitigate them. Additionally, we
use the synthesis method to propose a solution.
Findings:
Analysis by team was recognized as a valuable tool in mitigating mistakes
in intelligence analysis. Intelligence analysis is a cognitively intense activity,
subjected to cognitive biases and analytical mistakes. Mistakes and biases can
be further exacerbated by the pressures on intelligence analysts stemming from
uncertainty, denial and deceptions, secrecy and the need for timeliness. Because
of these limitations and challenges, individuals often struggle to recognize their
own mistakes, but are still able to identify them in other people. As a solution to
this, analysis by team is proposed. However, working in groups can lead to risks
such as groupthink and polarization. For that reason, analytical groups have to
be properly selected, structured and managed.
Research Limitations/Implications:
Besides the secret nature and, therefore, limited access to information, there
is also limited empirical research on the efficacy of the methods and techniques
used by intelligence analysts.
Practical Implications:
In the paper, we present a practical solution for mitigating mistakes by
intelligence analysis, which can be used by professionals from other fields of
national security as well as in the business environment.
Originality/Value:
This paper seeks to present the most viable tool to combat or mitigate
mistakes in analytical or investigative work. Analytical findings and conclusions
are meant for national security and law enforcement professionals and decision
makers. More effective and rigorous analysis can therefore support better
decision making. |
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| Keywords: | intelligence, intelligence analysis, analytical mistakes, cognitive biases |
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| Publication status: | Published |
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| Publication version: | Version of Record |
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| Publication date: | 30.12.2023 |
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| Year of publishing: | 2023 |
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| Number of pages: | 15 str. |
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| Numbering: | Letn. 25 |
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| PID: | 20.500.12556/DKUM-86713  |
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| UDC: | 351.746.1 |
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| ISSN on article: | 2232-2981 |
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| COBISS.SI-ID: | 179132163 |
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| Publication date in DKUM: | 15.01.2024 |
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| Views: | 359 |
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| Downloads: | 17 |
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| Metadata: |    |
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| Categories: | Misc.
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