| Naslov: | Road freight transport forecasting : a fuzzy Monte-Carlo simulation-based model selection approach |
|---|
| Avtorji: | ID Dragan, Dejan (Avtor)
ID Šinko, Simona (Avtor)
ID Keshavarzsaleh, Abolfazl (Avtor)
ID Rosi, Maja (Avtor) |
|---|
| Datoteke: |  Dragan-2022-Road_Freight_Transport_Forecasting.pdf (2,36 MB)
MD5: F726AEE17909762B059B78E0635471F1
 https://doi.org/10.17559/TV-20210110140112
|
|---|
| Jezik: | Angleški jezik |
|---|
| Vrsta gradiva: | Znanstveno delo |
|---|
| Tipologija: | 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek |
|---|
| Organizacija: | FL - Fakulteta za logistiko
|
|---|
| Opis: | As important as the classical approaches such as Akaike's AIC information and Bayesian BIC criterion in model-selection mechanism are, they have limitations. As an alternative, a novel modeling design encompasses a two-stage approach that integrates Fuzzy logic and Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs). In the first stage, an entire family of ARIMA model candidates with the corresponding information-based, residual-based, and statistical criteria is identified. In the second stage, the Mamdani fuzzy model (MFM) is used to uncover interrelationships hidden among previously obtained models criteria. To access the best forecasting model, the MCSs are also used for different settings of weights loaded on the fuzzy rules. The obtained model is developed to predict the road freight transport in Slovenia in the context of choosing the most appropriate electronic toll system. Results show that the mechanism works well when searching for the best model that provides a well-fit to the real data. |
|---|
| Ključne besede: | forecasting road transport, electronic toll system, Monte Carlo simulation, ARIMA models, logistics |
|---|
| Status publikacije: | Objavljeno |
|---|
| Verzija publikacije: | Objavljena publikacija |
|---|
| Datum objave: | 15.02.2022 |
|---|
| Založnik: | Strojarski fakultet, Elektrotehnički fakultet, Građevinski fakultet |
|---|
| Leto izida: | 2022 |
|---|
| Št. strani: | Str. 81-91 |
|---|
| Številčenje: | Letn. 29, Št. 1 |
|---|
| PID: | 20.500.12556/DKUM-89063  |
|---|
| UDK: | 519.2 |
|---|
| COBISS.SI-ID: | 95822851 |
|---|
| DOI: | 10.17559/TV-20210110140112 |
|---|
| ISSN pri članku: | 1330-3651 |
|---|
| Datum objave v DKUM: | 11.06.2024 |
|---|
| Število ogledov: | 365 |
|---|
| Število prenosov: | 40 |
|---|
| Metapodatki: |    |
|---|
| Področja: | Ostalo
|
|---|
|
:
|
Kopiraj citat |
|---|
| | | | Skupna ocena: | (0 glasov) |
|---|
| Vaša ocena: | Ocenjevanje je dovoljeno samo prijavljenim uporabnikom. |
|---|
| Objavi na: |  |
|---|
Postavite miškin kazalec na naslov za izpis povzetka. Klik na naslov izpiše
podrobnosti ali sproži prenos. |
