| Title: | Road freight transport forecasting : a fuzzy Monte-Carlo simulation-based model selection approach |
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| Authors: | ID Dragan, Dejan (Author)
ID Šinko, Simona (Author)
ID Keshavarzsaleh, Abolfazl (Author)
ID Rosi, Maja (Author) |
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| Files: |  Dragan-2022-Road_Freight_Transport_Forecasting.pdf (2,36 MB)
MD5: F726AEE17909762B059B78E0635471F1
 https://doi.org/10.17559/TV-20210110140112
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| Language: | English |
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| Work type: | Scientific work |
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| Typology: | 1.01 - Original Scientific Article |
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| Organization: | FL - Faculty of Logistic
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| Abstract: | As important as the classical approaches such as Akaike's AIC information and Bayesian BIC criterion in model-selection mechanism are, they have limitations. As an alternative, a novel modeling design encompasses a two-stage approach that integrates Fuzzy logic and Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs). In the first stage, an entire family of ARIMA model candidates with the corresponding information-based, residual-based, and statistical criteria is identified. In the second stage, the Mamdani fuzzy model (MFM) is used to uncover interrelationships hidden among previously obtained models criteria. To access the best forecasting model, the MCSs are also used for different settings of weights loaded on the fuzzy rules. The obtained model is developed to predict the road freight transport in Slovenia in the context of choosing the most appropriate electronic toll system. Results show that the mechanism works well when searching for the best model that provides a well-fit to the real data. |
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| Keywords: | forecasting road transport, electronic toll system, Monte Carlo simulation, ARIMA models, logistics |
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| Publication status: | Published |
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| Publication version: | Version of Record |
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| Publication date: | 15.02.2022 |
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| Publisher: | Strojarski fakultet, Elektrotehnički fakultet, Građevinski fakultet |
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| Year of publishing: | 2022 |
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| Number of pages: | Str. 81-91 |
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| Numbering: | Letn. 29, Št. 1 |
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| PID: | 20.500.12556/DKUM-89063  |
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| UDC: | 519.2 |
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| ISSN on article: | 1330-3651 |
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| COBISS.SI-ID: | 95822851 |
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| DOI: | 10.17559/TV-20210110140112 |
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| Publication date in DKUM: | 11.06.2024 |
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| Views: | 367 |
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| Downloads: | 40 |
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| Metadata: |    |
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| Categories: | Misc.
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