| Title: | A Bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuations |
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| Authors: | ID MacKinnon, Douglas (Author)
ID Pavlovič, Martin (Author) |
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| Files: |  MacKinnon-2020-A_Bayesian_analysis_of_hop_pric.pdf (372,60 KB)
MD5: 9186A75DFDD351765364CE0BF65B44A6
 https://doi.org/10.17221/239/2020-AGRICECON
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| Language: | English |
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| Work type: | Scientific work |
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| Typology: | 1.01 - Original Scientific Article |
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| Organization: | FKBV - Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences
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| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the correlation between U.S. season average prices for hops with U.S. hop stocks and U.S. hop hectarage. The Hop Equilibrium Ratio, a measure of the supply/demand relationship for U.S. hops, was introduced. Through the Bayesian inference method, the authors used these data to calculate the effect an incremental change to one metric had on the probability of directional changes of future U.S. season average prices (SAP). Between 2010 and 2020, the dominance of proprietary varieties created unprecedented cartel-like powers offering opportunities for supply- and price-management. Research results will enable more accurate forecasting and greater price stability in the hop industry. |
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| Keywords: | alpha-acid, Bayesian theorem, brewing industry, economies of scale, equillbrium, hop market |
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| Publication status: | Published |
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| Publication version: | Version of Record |
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| Submitted for review: | 08.06.2020 |
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| Article acceptance date: | 11.11.2020 |
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| Publication date: | 31.12.2020 |
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| Publisher: | Česká akademie zemědělských věd |
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| Year of publishing: | 2020 |
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| Number of pages: | Str. 519-526 |
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| Numbering: | Letn. 66, št. 12 |
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| PID: | 20.500.12556/DKUM-91698  |
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| UDC: | 663.4 |
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| ISSN on article: | 1805-9295 |
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| COBISS.SI-ID: | 41457155 |
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| DOI: | 10.17221/239/2020-AGRICECON |
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| Publication date in DKUM: | 28.01.2025 |
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| Views: | 180 |
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| Downloads: | 34 |
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| Metadata: |    |
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| Categories: | Misc.
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