Učinek fiskalnih impulzov na ekonomsko aktivnost in vpliv ekonomske neenakosti na velikost fiskalnih multiplikatorjev

Senekovič, Marko

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Title:	Učinek fiskalnih impulzov na ekonomsko aktivnost in vpliv ekonomske neenakosti na velikost fiskalnih multiplikatorjev
Authors:	ID Senekovič, Marko (Author) ID Bekő, Jani (Mentor) More about this mentor... ID Kavkler, Alenka (Comentor)
Files:	DOK_Senekovic_Marko_2025.pdf (4,08 MB) MD5: BFD42AB176D19C3F8B5FCC209A25B6E5
Language:	Slovenian
Work type:	Doctoral dissertation
Typology:	2.08 - Doctoral Dissertation
Organization:	EPF - Faculty of Business and Economics
Abstract:	Obstoječa empirična literatura opozarja na pomanjkanje raziskav, ki bi sistematično preučevale vpliv ekonomske neenakosti na velikost fiskalnih multiplikatorjev. V okviru naše doktorske disertacije naslovimo to vrzel z uporabo metodološkega pristopa vektorske avtoregresije (VAR), na podlagi katerega ocenimo fiskalne multiplikatorje za 47 gospodarstev z uporabo novega podatkovnega niza, ki zajema obdobje 1995–2021. Nadaljujemo z analizo vpliva različnih indikatorjev dohodkovne in premoženjske neenakosti ter porazdelitve dohodka na velikost multiplikatorja vladne potrošnje, in sicer preko dveh pristopov: panelne VAR analize in regresijske analize na podlagi predhodno ocenjenih individualnih fiskalnih multiplikatorjev za posamezne države. Ključne empirične ugotovitve kažejo, da multiplikatorji vladne potrošnje izkazujejo v splošnem pozitivno dinamiko na napovednem horizontu v približno 66 % analiziranih držav, medtem ko v 19 % držav ostajajo pretežno negativni, v preostalih 15 % pa so pozitivni le v določenih obdobjih. Ocene izkazujejo tudi, da aplikacija pozitivnih fiskalnih šokov v vladni potrošnji povzroča inflacijske pritiske. Nadalje rezultati razkrivajo pomembno povezavo med ravnjo ekonomske neenakosti in velikostjo fiskalnih multiplikatorjev: višja dohodkovna neenakost je sistematično povezana z višjimi vrednostmi fiskalnih multiplikatorjev, podobno velja tudi za večjo premoženjsko neenakost, čeprav so učinki v tem primeru v določenih primerih zgolj mejno statistično značilni. Pri porazdelitvi dohodka ugotavljamo, da večja koncentracija dohodka v zgornjih dohodkovnih razredih vodi v višje multiplikatorje, medtem ko večja koncentracija v spodnjih dohodkovnih skupinah prispeva k njihovemu zmanjšanju. Te ugotovitve potrjujejo tezo, da večja ekonomska heterogenost gospodinjstev krepi transmisijski kanal fiskalne politike na ekonomsko aktivnost. V empiričnem delu analize podrobneje raziščemo še mehanizme te transmisije, pri čemer rezultati nakazujejo, da so višje ravni javnega in zasebnega dolga ter nižje ravni varčevanja povezane z večjimi fiskalnimi multiplikatorji. Na podlagi rezultatov lahko sklepamo, da heterogenost v ekonomski strukturi prebivalstva pomembno determinira učinek fiskalnih spodbud na gospodarsko rast.
Keywords:	fiskalna politika, fiskalni multiplikator, dohodkovna neenakost, premoženjska neenakost, VAR, panelni VAR
Place of publishing:	Maribor
Publisher:	M. Senekovič]
Year of publishing:	2024
PID:	20.500.12556/DKUM-92560
UDC:	336.1/.2(043.3)
COBISS.SI-ID:	245560067
Publication date in DKUM:	13.08.2025
Views:	235
Downloads:	216
Metadata:
Categories:	EPF
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Licences

License:	CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Link:	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Description:	The most restrictive Creative Commons license. This only allows people to download and share the work for no commercial gain and for no other purposes.
Licensing start date:	19.04.2025

Secondary language

Language:	English
Title:	The effect of fiscal impulses on economic activity and the influence of economic inequality on the size of fiscal multipliers
Abstract:	The existing empirical literature highlights a lack of systematic research investigating the impact of economic inequality on the size of fiscal multipliers. In our doctoral dissertation, we address this gap by employing a vector autoregression (VAR) methodological framework to estimate fiscal multipliers for 47 economies, using a newly compiled dataset covering the period from 1995 to 2021. We then proceed to analyse the influence of various indicators of income and wealth inequality, as well as income distribution, on the magnitude of government consumption multipliers, employing two complementary approaches: a panel VAR analysis and a regression analysis based on the previously estimated individual fiscal multipliers for each country. The key empirical findings reveal that government consumption multipliers generally display a positive trajectory over the forecast horizon in approximately 66% of the countries analysed, remain predominantly negative in around 19% of cases, and exhibit a mixed pattern, being positive only during certain periods, in the remaining 15%. Our estimates also show that positive fiscal shocks to government consumption tend to generate inflationary pressures. Furthermore, the results indicate a significant relationship between the level of economic inequality and the size of fiscal multipliers: higher income inequality is systematically associated with larger multipliers, and a similar, albeit somewhat weaker, pattern is observed for wealth inequality, with effects in some cases being only marginally statistically significant. Regarding income distribution, we find that greater income concentration at the top of the distribution correlates with higher multipliers, whereas higher income concentration among lower-income groups is associated with smaller multipliers. These findings support the hypothesis that greater economic heterogeneity among households amplifies the transmission channel of fiscal policy to economic activity. In the empirical part of the analysis, we further explore the mechanisms behind this transmission, with results suggesting that higher levels of public and private debt, as well as lower levels of savings, are linked to larger fiscal multipliers. Based on these findings, we conclude that heterogeneity in the economic structure of the population plays a crucial role in determining the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus measures on economic growth.
Keywords:	fiscal policy, fiscal multiplier, income inequality, wealth inequality, VAR, panel VAR

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