Analiza veljavnosti Okunovega zakona na skupini držav G7

Pignar, Ana

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Title:	Analiza veljavnosti Okunovega zakona na skupini držav G7
Authors:	ID Pignar, Ana (Author) ID Bekő, Jani (Mentor) More about this mentor...
Files:	MAG_Pignar_Ana_2025.pdf (7,52 MB) MD5: 858345EDCF17B9C547273E16AF01C761
Language:	Slovenian
Work type:	Master's thesis/paper
Typology:	2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:	EPF - Faculty of Business and Economics
Abstract:	Ob nastopu recesije se gospodarska aktivnost upočasni, proizvodnja se zmanjša. Podjetja potrebujejo manj delovne sile, zato zaustavljajo zaposlovanja ali odpuščajo delavce. Posledično se stopnja brezposelnosti poveča, kar ima tako ekonomske kot socialne posledice: upadejo dohodki gospodinjstev, poraste ekonomska negotovost in poveča se pritisk na sistem socialnega varstva. Arthur Okun je leta 1962 opisal negativno povezavo med gospodarsko rastjo in stopnjo brezposelnosti, dvema ključnima meriloma zdravja ekonomije. Uveljavilo se je "pravilo palca", in sicer: dva odstotka upada BDP pomeni približno za eno odstotno točko višjo stopnjo brezposelnosti. To empirično razmerje ponuja ekonomistom preprosto, a učinkovito orodje za ocenjevanje socialnih posledic gospodarskih nihanj. Zaradi pomena in praktične uporabnosti Okunovega zakona obstaja obsežna znanstvena literatura, ki proučuje to empirično povezavo v različnih državah, regijah in časovnih obdobjih. Da bi preverili robustnost zakonitosti, dejavnike, ki vplivajo nanjo, in stabilnost skozi čas, smo v magistrskem delu izvedli obsežen pregled empirične literature. Zbrali smo 693 ocen Okunovega koeficienta in na njihovi podlagi predstavili statistične dokaze o zmerno visoki stopnji heterogenosti v ocenah Okunovih koeficientov med državami. Magistrsko delo v naslednjem koraku preverja veljavnost in asimetričnost Okunovega zakona v državah skupine G7. Panel analiziramo s statičnimi modeli združenih podatkov, fiksnih in slučajnih učinkov, pri katerih asimetričnost testiramo z uporabo interakcijske spremenljivke, ki povezuje prisotnost pozitivne gospodarske rasti z njeno stopnjo. Dodatno panel analiziramo z ocenjevanjem modelov ARDL in NARDL. Ugotovili smo veljavnost Okunovega zakona v skupini držav G7 v obdobju 1993–2019 na letnih podatkih in na četrtletnih podatkih v obdobju 1993Q1–2024Q1. Asimetričen vpliv pozitivnih in negativnih šokov rasti realnega BDP na stopnjo brezposelnosti pa smo zaznali zgolj pri preučevanju modela NARDL v dolgoročnem obdobju.
Keywords:	Okunov zakon, gospodarska rast, države skupine G7, panelni podatki, ARDL, NARDL.
Place of publishing:	Maribor
Publisher:	A. Pignar]
Year of publishing:	2025
PID:	20.500.12556/DKUM-95010
UDC:	330.35:331.56
COBISS.SI-ID:	250876675
Publication date in DKUM:	29.09.2025
Views:	119
Downloads:	75
Metadata:
Categories:	EPF
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Licences

License:	CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Link:	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Description:	The most restrictive Creative Commons license. This only allows people to download and share the work for no commercial gain and for no other purposes.
Licensing start date:	01.09.2025

Secondary language

Language:	English
Title:	An analysis of the validity of Okun's law in the G7 countries
Abstract:	During a recession, economic activity slows down and production declines. Companies require less labour and therefore reduce hiring or lay off workers. Consequently, the unemployment rate rises, which has both economic and social consequences: household incomes decline, economic uncertainty rises, and pressure on the social welfare system increases. In 1962, Arthur Okun introduced the negative relationship between economic growth and the unemployment rate, two key indicators of macroeconomic performance. A “rule of thumb” emerged: a two-percent drop in GDP corresponds to approximately a one-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate. This empirical relationship provides economists with a simple yet effective tool for assessing the social consequences of economic fluctuations. Given its significance and practical relevance, an extensive body of academic literature examines Okun’s Law across countries, regions, and time periods. To test its robustness, influencing factors, and stability over time, this master's thesis conducts a comprehensive review of the empirical literature. A total of 693 estimates of Okun's coefficient were collected, providing statistical evidence of a moderately high degree of heterogeneity in the estimates across countries. In the next step, the thesis tests the validity and asymmetry of Okun's Law in G7 countries. The panel is analysed using static pooled, fixed-effects, and random-effects models, with asymmetry tested through an interaction variable that connects the presence of positive economic growth with its rate. Additionally, the panel is analysed using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model estimations. The results confirm the validity of Okun's Law in the group of G7 countries over the period 1993–2019 using annual data, and over the period 1993Q1–2024Q1 using quarterly data. An asymmetric effect of positive and negative real GDP growth shocks on the unemployment rate was observed only in the long-run analysis of the NARDL model.
Keywords:	Okun's Law, economic growth, G7 countries, panel data, ARDL, NARDL.

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