| Title: | Simulation-based modelling of migration flows on the Balkan route : a contribution to the development of European migration policies |
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| Authors: | ID Bernik, Igor (Author)
ID Rodič, Blaž (Author) |
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| Files: |  RAZ_Bernik_Igor_2025.pdf (920,21 KB)
MD5: 34389118DB407E8B467CDB4F71EA7622
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| Language: | English |
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| Work type: | Scientific work |
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| Typology: | 1.01 - Original Scientific Article |
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| Organization: | FVV - Faculty of Criminal Justice and Security
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| Abstract: | Migration flows along the Balkan Route since 2015 have revealed structural weaknesses in the European Union’s migration governance and highlighted the need for new, evidence-based approaches. This paper presents the MIG@B project, which develops an integrated simulation model of migration by combining agent-based modelling (ABM), system dynamics (SD), and discrete-event simulation (DES), supported by Bayesian methods for managing uncertainty. The model addresses both micro-level decision-making among migrants and macro-level feedback loops between policies and public opinion, as well as operational challenges related to border flows and asylum capacities. The approach contributes to the design of coordinated and sustainable EU and Slovenian migration policies, aligning with the New Pact on Migration and Asylum [1] and Slovenia’s Migration Strategy 2023–2030 [2]. The expected contribution is threefold: scientific innovation through methodological integration, political usability by providing scenario-based testing of policy measures, and normative relevance through alignment with European solidarity and human rights values. The MIG@B framework exemplifies how simulation modelling can serve as a laboratory for migration policy, enabling transparent, robust, and data-driven decision-making. |
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| Keywords: | migration, simulation models, Balkan route, European Union, policy design |
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| Publication status: | Published |
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| Publication version: | Version of Record |
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| Article acceptance date: | 04.09.2025 |
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| Publication date: | 13.10.2025 |
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| Year of publishing: | 2025 |
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| Number of pages: | str. 325-330 |
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| Numbering: | Vol. 10 |
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| PID: | 20.500.12556/DKUM-95701  |
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| UDC: | 314.15 |
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| ISSN on article: | 2367-8925 |
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| COBISS.SI-ID: | 252966659 |
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| Publication date in DKUM: | 13.10.2025 |
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| Views: | 199 |
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| Downloads: | 14 |
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| Metadata: |    |
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| Categories: | Misc.
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