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Title:Analiza stroškovne učinkovitosti investicij v cestno infrastrukturo v Sloveniji : doktorska disertacija
Authors:ID Makovšek, Dejan (Author)
ID Logožar, Klavdij (Mentor) More about this mentor... New window
ID Tominc, Polona (Comentor)
Files:.pdf DR_Makovsek_Dejan_i2009.pdf (1,58 MB)
MD5: A58D7506DB08D73AB40C0CF2CFF4A682
PID: 20.500.12556/dkum/f9e450a4-4989-4e24-8162-3a1db928a74b
 
Language:Slovenian
Work type:Dissertation
Typology:2.08 - Doctoral Dissertation
Organization:EPF - Faculty of Business and Economics
Abstract:Investicije v prometno infrastrukturo so finančno izredno obsežne. Natančno ocenjevanje njihove vrednosti v postopku ocenjevanja investicij pa je pomembno tako iz vidika narodnogospodarske učinkovite alokacije sredstev kot tudi z vidika načrtovanja denarnih tokov. V svetu so raziskovalci že dokazali, da v najrazvitejših državah sveta prihaja do sistematičnih prekoračitev stroškov. Prekoračitev se pri tem izračunava kot razmerje med dejanskimi (realiziranimi) stroški in ocenjenimi stroški v trenutku odločitve za izvedbo projekta. V disertaciji se ukvarjamo s vprašanjem sistematičnih prekoračitev v primeru cestne infrastrukture v Sloveniji ter vzroki in njihovim obsegom glede na najrazvitejše države v svetu. Iz podatkov DARS nam je uspelo sestaviti dva vzorca projektov (vzorec I obsega 20 in vzorec II 36 projektov) z različnim obsegom zajetih stroškovnih kategorij. Zbrani podatki so reprezentativni za obdobje 1995 – 2007. Analiza je pokazala občutne prekoračitve (30 % za vzorec I in 19 % za vzorec II), ki pa niso statistično značilno različne (višje ali nižje) od prekoračitev v gospodarsko najrazvitejših državah oziroma so primerljive. Znotraj vzorcev ugotavljamo padanje prekoračitev skozi čas. Glede na razpoložljive podatke, se kot najpomembnejši vzrok takšnega trenda ne kaže izboljšanje ocenjevanja ali vodenja investicij, ampak mehanizem ocenjevanja stroškov. Med drugimi pomembnejšimi ugotovitvami velja izpostaviti necelovitost in neučinkovitost trenutne prakse obvladovanja tveganj in njihovega ocenjevanja (pribitek za nepredvidena dela).
Keywords:investicije, ocenjevanje, tehnika, analiza stroškov, stroški, rešitve, metode, učinkovitost, ceste, infrastruktura, Slovenija, komparacije, mednarodne primerjave, svet, avtoceste, prometna politika, statistična analiza
Place of publishing:Ptuj
Publisher:D. Makovšek
Year of publishing:2009
PID:20.500.12556/DKUM-24697 New window
UDC:336.5
COBISS.SI-ID:19248870 New window
NUK URN:URN:SI:UM:DK:1OW7VBEW
Publication date in DKUM:30.05.2012
Views:3278
Downloads:242
Metadata:XML DC-XML DC-RDF
Categories:EPF
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Secondary language

Language:English
Abstract:Investments in transport infrastructure are financially demanding. Accurate cost estimation in the investment appraisal procedure is important, both from the perspective of efficient resource allocation in the national economy as well as from the perspective of cashflow planning. Researchers have already prooven significant systematic cost overruns even in the most developed countries of the world. Cost overrun is normally calculated as ratio between actual costs and costs, estimated at the moment of the decision to build. This disertation deals with the question of systematic cost overruns in the case of the Slovene highway infrastructure, their causes and their scope, when compared to the economically most developed countries in the world. Using data from DARS we managed to create two project samples (sample I includes 20 and sample II 36 projects) which encompass a different set of project cost categories. The samples are representative for the period 1995 – 2007. The analysis reveald substantial cost overruns (30 % for sample I and 19 % for sample II). These are, however, not statistically significantly different from cost overruns in the economically most developed countries. Within the samples a decrease in cost overruns over time is evident. Given the available data, the most important source of this trend is not, however, the improvement in investment appraisal or investment management techniques, but the mechanism of cost estimation. Among other important findings it is worth pointing out a nonholistic and inefficient practice of risk management and risk impact estimation (flat mark-up for unexpected works).


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