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Title:Testiranje modelov VaR v izjemnih okoliščinah
Authors:ID Žunko, Matjaž (Author)
ID Bokal, Drago (Author)
ID Jagrič, Timotej (Author)
Files:URL http://www.dlib.si/details/URN:NBN:SI:DOC-EXDJLO60
 
Language:Slovenian
Work type:Not categorized
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:EPF - Faculty of Business and Economics
Abstract:V članku analiziramo različne metode VaR in za vsako od njih opredelimo prednosti in slabosti, upoštevajoč časovni horizont, kompleksnost, potrebne vire, način poročanja o rezultatih in dodatnih zahtevah (npr. regulatornih). Ugotavljamo, da izbran nabor metod ne more biti zadostna podlaga za odločitve pri obvladovanju tveganj, saj te pogosto dajejo izrazito podcenjene napovedi tveganja. Taka ugotovitev je verjetno nasprotujoča si, vendar je VaR ustrezna mera le v normalnih tržnih okoliščinah in ob veljavnosti večjega števila predpostavk. Kakovost napovedi VaR je namreč odvisna od veljavnosti predpostavk, na katerih temelji. Razlaga rezultatov mora zato vedno vključevati tudi razpravo o predpostavkah, kar pa mnogi kritiki metod VaR pozabljajo.
Keywords:trg vrednostnih papirjev, vrednost, tveganje, testiranje, metode, simulacija
Publisher:Zavod Republike Slovenije za makroekonomske analize in razvoj
Year of publishing:2011
Number of pages:str. 57-67
Numbering:Letn. 45, št. 3
PID:20.500.12556/DKUM-52267 New window
UDC:336.76
ISSN on article:1318-2803
COBISS.SI-ID:10777884 New window
NUK URN:URN:SI:UM:DK:DVXGDGA2
Publication date in DKUM:10.07.2015
Views:1104
Downloads:38
Metadata:XML DC-XML DC-RDF
Categories:Misc.
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:IB revija
Shortened title:IB rev.
Publisher:Urad RS za makroekonomske analize in razvoj
ISSN:1318-2803
COBISS.SI-ID:38115584 New window

Secondary language

Language:English
Abstract:In this article, we review various VaR approaches and derive the pros and cons of each methodology in terms of time horizon, complexity, resources, level of reporting, and specific needs (for example, regulatory requirements). In our view, the risk management process should not rely heavily on VaR calculations, since they may quite often underestimate risk. This may seem like a controversial statement, but VaR is only valid under normal market conditions and with a series of theoretical assumptions. Therefore, it must always be interpreted within this set of assumptions. That is something that most VaR critics forget too easily.


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