Stacionarnost realnega bdp v izbranih državah evropske unije

Korez, Zarja

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Title:	Stacionarnost realnega bdp v izbranih državah evropske unije
Authors:	ID Korez, Zarja (Author) ID Bekő, Jani (Mentor) More about this mentor...
Files:	MAG_Korez_Zarja.pdf (4,86 MB) MD5: 8CF3B927FD6D38F566B4BE6D95BEF4A5
Language:	Slovenian
Work type:	Master's thesis/paper
Typology:	2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:	EPF - Faculty of Business and Economics
Abstract:	Še pred razvojem sodobnih teorij poslovnih ciklov so ekonomisti preučevali volatilnost nacionalnega outputa in nihanja ključnih makroekonomskih spremenljivk. Ne glede na izvor teh nihanj je neizpodbitno dejstvo, da se narava gibanja realnega BDP skozi čas spreminja, kar potrjujejo številne gospodarske krize zadnjih nekaj desetletij. Prav zato je razumevanje narave teh sprememb ključno za oblikovanje ustreznih ekonomskih politik, namenjenih blaženju šokov in zagotavljanju stabilnosti v gospodarstvu. Če namreč realni BDP sledi stacionarnemu procesu, šoki nimajo trajnih posledic, kar zmanjšuje potrebo po intervencijah različnih ekonomskih politik. V nasprotnem primeru pa postane ekonomska politika osrednji instrument spodbujanja stabilne in dolgoročne gospodarske rasti. V naši raziskavi smo s pomočjo ekonometričnih metod preučevali stacionarnost realnega BDP in realnega BDP na prebivalca za 15 članic EU v obdobju od leta 1970 do 2022. Uporabili smo teste enotskega korena tako na ravni posameznih časovnih vrst kot v panelu podatkov. Rezultati analiz kažejo, da v absolutnih vrednostih agregatnega outputa večine držav EU ne izkazuje stacionarnega procesa, medtem ko prve diference potrjujejo prisotnost stacionarnosti. ADF test sicer nakazuje na stacionarnost za nekaj držav ob vključitvi konstante v testno specifikacijo, kar implicira konstantno povprečno raven realnega BDP brez trendne komponente. Podobno velja za realni BDP na prebivalca. Panelni testi prve generacije so izkazali stacionarnost zgolj ob upoštevanju individualnih učinkov, kar nakazuje na heterogenost posameznih časovnih vrst znotraj panela, medtem ko panelna testa druge generacije, Pesaran CIPS in PANIC test, praviloma zavračata hipotezo generalne stacionarnosti obeh spremenljivk realnega agregatnega outputa.
Keywords:	stacionarnost, realni BDP, realni BDP na prebivalca, makroekonomska analiza, evropska gospodarstva
Place of publishing:	Maribor
Publisher:	Z. Korez]
Year of publishing:	2025
PID:	20.500.12556/DKUM-95450
UDC:	330.55
COBISS.SI-ID:	256152067
Publication date in DKUM:	06.11.2025
Views:	102
Downloads:	50
Metadata:
Categories:	EPF
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Licences

License:	CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Link:	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Description:	The most restrictive Creative Commons license. This only allows people to download and share the work for no commercial gain and for no other purposes.
Licensing start date:	18.09.2025

Secondary language

Language:	English
Title:	The stationarity of real gdp in selected european union countries
Abstract:	Before the development of modern business cycle theories, economists studied the volatility of national output and the fluctuations of key macroeconomic variables. Regardless of the source of these fluctuations, it is an indisputable fact that the dynamics of real GDP have changed over time, as evidenced by numerous economic crises in recent decades. Understanding the nature of these changes is therefore crucial for designing appropriate economic policies aimed at mitigating shocks and ensuring stability in the economy. If real GDP follows a stationary process, shocks do not have permanent effects, which reduces the need for policy interventions. Otherwise, economic policy becomes a central instrument for fostering stability and long-term economic growth. In our research, we used econometric methods to examine the stationarity of real GDP and real GDP per capita for 15 EU member states over the period 1970–2022. We applied unit root tests both at the level of individual time series and in a panel data setting. The results indicate that in absolute terms, the aggregate output of most EU countries does not follow a stationary process, whereas the first differences confirm the presence of stationarity. The ADF test suggests stationarity for some countries when a constant is included in the test specification, which implies a constant average level of real GDP without a trend component. Similar results were found for real GDP per capita. Panel tests of the first generation indicated stationarity only when individual effects were taken into account, pointing to heterogeneity among the time series within the panel, while second-generation panel tests, namely the Pesaran CIPS and the PANIC test, generally reject the hypothesis of overall stationarity for both variables of real aggregate output.
Keywords:	stationarity, real GDP, real GDP per capita, macroeconomic analysis, European economies

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