| Title: | Passenger transportation emission: trends and projections till 2050 |
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| Authors: | ID Fale, Martin (Author)
ID Obrecht, Matevž (Author) |
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| Files: |  RAZ_Fale_Martin_2026.pdf (509,58 KB)
MD5: 5528A3AE8E23D1E0CE9B947FF7153040
 https://dx.doi.org/10.21622/MARLOG.2026.15.1.86
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| Language: | English |
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| Work type: | Article |
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| Typology: | 1.08 - Published Scientific Conference Contribution |
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| Organization: | FL - Faculty of Logistic
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| Abstract: | The environmental aspect of transportation mode choice has become an increasingly significant factor in individual's behaviour. By utilizing historical and current emissions data, it is possible to project future emission trends, which can be used for transport policies at both micro and macro levels. Emission factors are commonly used in studies addressing greenhouse gas emissions and decarbonization strategies. The research aimed to explore the projected trends in emissions from various transportation modes up to 2050. Based on the slope of the trendline of the scatter plot, we were able to determine whether the trend indicates an increase or decrease in emissions for each transportation mode. In first scenario, analysis of emissions data from the years 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, indicates that emissions will rise across all transportation modes, except for trains, which are projected to achieve zero-emission operation after 2040. Among the other transportation modes, emissions from ships are expected to increase the fastest, followed by cars, airplanes, and motorcycles, with buses exhibiting the slowest growth. The results of the applied method deviate from the expected emission trend, presented in the second scenario, which predicted a decrease in emissions. This raises the question of the challenges in predicting future emission trends and highlights the need to develop mathematical models that account for both the current state and the uncertainty of future developments in decision-making. |
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| Keywords: | transportation mode, choice modelling, GHG emissions, emissions per passenger-kilometre, forecast |
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| Publication status: | Published |
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| Publication version: | Version of Record |
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| Publication date: | 01.01.2026 |
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| Year of publishing: | 2026 |
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| Number of pages: | str. 417-426 |
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| Numbering: | Vol. 15 |
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| PID: | 20.500.12556/DKUM-98848  |
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| UDC: | 656:504 |
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| ISSN on article: | 2974-3141 |
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| COBISS.SI-ID: | 284578563 |
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| DOI: | 10.21622/MARLOG.2026.15.1.86 |
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| Publication date in DKUM: | 13.07.2026 |
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| Views: | 312 |
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| Downloads: | 4 |
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| Metadata: |    |
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| Categories: | Misc.
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