Ekonometrična analiza investicijske funkcije na Poljskem in Češkem

Chagorski, Martin

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Title:	Ekonometrična analiza investicijske funkcije na Poljskem in Češkem
Authors:	ID Chagorski, Martin (Author) ID Boršič, Darja (Mentor) More about this mentor... ID Fir, Nejc (Comentor)
Files:	UN_Chagorski_Martin_2026.pdf (1,65 MB) MD5: DC8F48EA78337389CA7C47FA32BC6238
Language:	Slovenian
Work type:	Bachelor thesis/paper
Typology:	2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization:	EPF - Faculty of Business and Economics
Abstract:	Diplomsko delo obravnava ekonometrično analizo investicijske funkcije na Poljskem in Češkem v obdobju od prvega četrtletja 2005 do četrtega četrtletja 2023. Namen raziskave je identificirati ključne makroekonomske dejavnike, ki vplivajo na gibanje bruto investicij v osnovna sredstva (GFCF) v obeh državah ter ugotoviti podobnosti in razlike v občutljivosti investicij na posamezne dejavnike. V teoretičnem delu smo proučili ključna izhodišča investicijskega odločanja, vključno s Keynesovo teorijo mejne učinkovitosti kapitala, akceleracijskim modelom, Jorgensonovo neoklasično teorijo ter Tobinovim Q modelom. Empirična analiza temelji na četrtletnih podatkih, pridobljenih iz baz Eurostat, Mednarodnega denarnega sklada ter nacionalnih centralnih bank. Z metodo najmanjših kvadratov smo ocenili ločena modela za vsako državo, pri čemer smo odvisno spremenljivko (GFCF) pojasnjevali z realnimi obrestnimi merami, bruto dodano vrednostjo, deviznim tečajem, stopnjo inflacije in subvencijami. Diagnostično preverjanje modelov je vključevalo teste za normalno porazdelitev (Jarque-Bera), multikolinearnost (VIF), heteroskedastičnost (Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey, Harvey, Glejser) in avtokorelacijo (Breusch-Godfrey). Rezultati so pokazali, da so modeli ustrezno specificirani in da ni prisotne multikolinearnosti ali heteroskedastičnosti, vendar smo ugotovili prisotnost avtokorelacije, zato smo uporabili Newey-West HAC standardne napake. Rezultati kažejo, da imata na Poljskem največji vpliv na investicije bruto dodana vrednost in devizni tečaj, medtem ko imajo na Češkem najpomembnejšo vlogo realne obrestne mere in inflacija. Standardizirani koeficienti so razkrili pomembne strukturne razlike med državama. Ugotovitve raziskave so uporabne za oblikovanje gospodarskih politik, usmerjenih v spodbujanje investicijske aktivnosti v obeh državah, hkrati pa prispevajo k razumevanju dejavnikov investicij v tranzicijskih gospodarstvih Srednje in Vzhodne Evrope.
Keywords:	investicijska funkcija, bruto investicije v osnovna sredstva (GFCF), ekonometrična analiza, Poljska, Češka, metoda najmanjših kvadratov.
Place of publishing:	Maribor
Publisher:	M. Chagorski]
Year of publishing:	2026
PID:	20.500.12556/DKUM-99642
UDC:	330.43:330.322
COBISS.SI-ID:	291984387
Publication date in DKUM:	22.09.2026
Views:	65
Downloads:	4
Metadata:
Categories:	EPF
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Licences

License:	CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Link:	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Description:	This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.
Licensing start date:	21.08.2026

Secondary language

Language:	English
Title:	Econometric analysis of the investment function in Poland and the Czech republic
Abstract:	This thesis presents an econometric analysis of the investment function in Poland and the Czech Republic over the period from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2023. The aim of the research is to identify the key macroeconomic factors influencing the movement of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) in both countries and to determine the similarities and differences in the sensitivity of investments to individual factors. The theoretical part examines the key foundations of investment decision-making, including Keynes's theory of marginal efficiency of capital, the accelerator model, Jorgenson's neoclassical theory, and Tobin's Q model. The empirical analysis is based on quarterly data obtained from Eurostat, the International Monetary Fund, and national central banks. Using the ordinary least squares method, we estimated separate models for each country, where the dependent variable (GFCF) was explained by real interest rates, gross value added, the exchange rate, the inflation rate, and subsidies. Diagnostic testing of the models included tests for normal distribution (Jarque-Bera), multicollinearity (VIF), heteroskedasticity (Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey, Harvey, Glejser), and autocorrelation (Breusch-Godfrey). The results showed that the models are correctly specified and that there is no multicollinearity or heteroskedasticity; however, we identified the presence of autocorrelation, prompting the use of Newey-West HAC standard errors. The results indicate that in Poland, gross value added and the exchange rate have the greatest impact on investments, while in the Czech Republic, real interest rates and inflation play the most significant role. Standardized coefficients revealed important structural differences between the two countries. The findings of the research are useful for the formulation of economic policies aimed at promoting investment activity in both countries, while also contributing to the understanding of investment determinants in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe.
Keywords:	investment function, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), econometric analysis, Poland, Czech Republic, ordinary least squares (OLS).

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